- Record
- 3–1
- Hit rate
- 75.0%
- ROI
- +17.1%
- Units
- +0.68u
MLB PICKS · GRADED IN PUBLIC
Your next baseball pick deserves proof.
Explore today’s MLB picks, see the price that qualifies, and check the record before you decide. Every published pick is tracked through the final result—wins and losses included.
730–364 settled on the favorites board since Sep 2, 2026 · delayed ledger, CC BY 4.0
How Decisions qualifyOne engineer. One model. One sport. Every result on the record.
01 / Postseason
The 2026 Postseason · World Series
October, graded in public.
Every postseason Decision is filed before first pitch and graded from the box score, like every regular-season slate. Wins and losses stay on the record.
World Series
Milwaukee Brewers lead 2–0
Wild Card Series
- Houston Astros0Chicago White Sox2
- New York Yankees2Boston Red Sox0
- Atlanta Braves2Philadelphia Phillies1
- San Diego Padres2Chicago Cubs0
Division Series
- Tampa Bay Rays3New York Yankees0
- Cleveland Guardians3Chicago White Sox2
- Milwaukee Brewers3San Diego Padres1
- Los Angeles Dodgers3Atlanta Braves1
League Championship Series
- Tampa Bay Rays4Cleveland Guardians2
- Milwaukee Brewers4Los Angeles Dodgers0
World Series
- Milwaukee Brewers2Tampa Bay Rays0
Champion
- 2026 World SeriesTo be decided
01 / Official results
Official results · updated after every settlement
Last night, graded in public.
Posterior grades its own official Decisions from the box score and publishes the result whether the day won or lost. Nothing here is selected after the fact.
Final
Every Decision on the Oct 24, 2026 slate is settled and released to the public ledger.
75.0%Official favorites · 3/4 graded picks correct
- Record
- 3–1 4 of 4 picks resolved
- Flat-stake ROI
- +17.1% ROI +17.1% @ avg 1.54 (priced 4/4)
- Net units
- +0.68u Flat-stake result: +0.68u · 1u per pick at the captured price
- Accuracy is the selection objective; the price result is reported beside it, never promised.
- all 4 settled picks priced
View all 4 released picks
| Player | Market | Tier | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Chourio · Milwaukee Brewers | 1+ hits | STRONG | -200 | WIN |
| Jonathan Aranda · Tampa Bay Rays | 1+ hits | LEAN | -166 | WIN |
| William Contreras · Milwaukee Brewers | 1+ hits | LEAN | -172 | WIN |
| Yandy Díaz · Tampa Bay Rays | 1+ hits | STRONG | -210 | LOSS |
Historical record
The days before it, and the whole current policy, with the same definitions.
| Slate | W–L | Hit | ROI | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 | 3–1 | 75.0% | +17.1% | +0.68u |
| Fri Oct 23 | 2–2 | 50.0% | -26.7% | -1.07u |
| Mon Oct 19 | 3–1 | 75.0% | +13.9% | +0.55u |
| Fri Oct 16 | 6–0 | 100.0% | +55.2% | +3.31u |
| Thu Oct 15 | 3–5 | 37.5% | -42.6% | -3.41u |
| Wed Oct 14 | 2–2 | 50.0% | -23.9% | -0.96u |
| Tue Oct 13 | 2–2 | 50.0% | -24.0% | -0.96u |
| Pooled | 21–13 | 61.8% | -5.4% | -1.85u |
Pooled from 21 of 34 priced picks; all 34 settled picks priced. Computed from totals, not averaged across days.
Live since Sep 2, 2026. The board files market favorites the model does not dispute, anchored to the sharp consensus price, and is judged on hit rate. Earlier boards stay on the record under their own names.
- Official W–L
- 730–364
- Hit rate
- 66.7%
- ROI
- +1.0%
- Net units
- +11.45u
- 1,094 priced picks · 1,096 settled picks · 1,096 filed Decisions
- 100.0% of settled picks carried an executable price
Earlier policies · shown, never merged
Previous board (edge policy) Jun 7 – Sep 1, 2026: 215–341 · 38.7% · ROI -12.8%. Still public, never summed into the current board.
Audited replay through Jun 6, 2026: 1,405–751 · 65.2% over 2,156 rows. An offline replay, not a live board.
Today’s board · Oct 26, 2026Board published · no Decision cleared the bar
0 of 1 games carry a Decision · 0 WAIT · 0 PASS · locked Oct 26, 2:22 PM EDT
The slate was evaluated, but no market cleared Posterior’s complete publication standard. That is a published result, not a missing one.
Open today’s deskLatest public receiptLatest public receipt · WIN · Oct 24, 2026
The full Decision — filed probability, captured price, filing time and outcome — is shown below. Tonight’s grades post overnight and appear above by morning. See the Decision
Explore Posterior ProWhat these numbers are. Hit rate is wins over priced, settled Decisions; voids and pending picks are shown separately. ROI is net return over total flat 1u stakes at the price captured at lock from an allowlisted book — a diagnostic of the record, not a verified customer return. Settled picks without an executable price are reported as unpriced, never assumed. The current board selects market favorites the model does not dispute and is judged on hit rate; a positive ROI is reported when it happens, never promised. Individual results do not establish parlay performance.
Definitions and refresh
- Population: official Decisions filed under the current policy only. Shadow research, unpublished candidates, backtests and offline replays are excluded.
- Slate days are America/New_York calendar dates. Late games settle into their own slate.
- Pooled hit rate and ROI are recomputed from underlying totals; daily percentages are never averaged.
- Duplicate rows from repeated lock runs are collapsed to one Decision.
- Row-level receipts join the public ledger after the release delay; the totals above update as soon as settlement writes the record.
- Same source as the public accuracy page and
/api/mlb/accuracy.
Slates through Oct 24, 2026Aggregate computed Oct 26, 2:32 PM EDT
02 / Publication discipline
Publication discipline
A prediction isn’t enough. The price has to hold up.
Posterior checks market-price evidence and publication eligibility before a Decision enters the official board. Most of what the model evaluates never becomes a pick, and that restraint is the product.
- 01
Evidence before edge
A candidate needs a two-way market anchor from allowlisted books, fresh odds, a confirmed lineup and starter, and a large enough sample. Thin, one-sided or stale prices are display-only and never publish.
- 02
The price has to hold up
The board keeps only markets whose captured price sits inside the policy’s limit against the consensus anchor. If the price drifts past that limit before lock, the row stays WAIT — it is not filed.
- 03
Filed once, graded in public
A filed Decision is immutable: the book, price, quote time, probability and policy version are frozen at lock, settled from the box score, and released to the public ledger — losses included.
Published board · Oct 26, 2026Board published · no Decision cleared the bar
- Contracts assessed
- 0
- WAIT
- 0
- PASS
- 0
- Filed Decisions
- 0
One population, one lock archive: every filed Decision above was one of the assessed contracts. WAIT and PASS rows are visible in the product, never repackaged as picks. How the gates work
03 / Posterior Decisions
What a Decision actually looks like.
A settled public Decision with its filed price, probability and recorded outcome. Later market movement never rewrites the original receipt. The example is the latest released one, chosen by date — never by result.
SETTLED · WIN · Milwaukee Brewers · 1+ hits Over 0.5 · 0.5
Jackson Chourio
- Posterior Price
- -187
- Filed probability
- 65.2%
- Captured quote
- -200 · prophetx
- Quote captured
- 4:30 PM
- Action Window
- -177 or better
- Filed
- 4:32 PM
- Receipt
- WIN
05 / Access
Explore, decide, build
A baseball account first. Decision intelligence when you want it.
A free Posterior account lets fans personalize their club context and participate where the product supports it. Pro completes the independent Decision workflow. Builder exposes Posterior’s supported machine contract.
Play, and keep the receiptsalways
Posterior Account
$0
Personalize your Primary Club, join eligible Clubhouse calls, follow players, explore team context and inspect public MLB evidence with a free account.
- Posterior Play — tonight's card, graded from the box score
- Baseball IQ and a public baseball resume with your settled record
- Clubhouse calls with the evidence frozen at publish
- Explicit paused, unpublished, no-opportunity, and unavailable states
- Team desks, Front Office roster outlooks and the Roster Lab
Live decision intelligenceper month
Pro
$29/mo
Know what Posterior thinks the outcome is worth, the exact price that still qualifies, where the best eligible quote exists now, and what changed afterward.
- Posterior Price: independent probability and fair value
- Action Window: the worst price that still clears policy
- Current quote: exact eligible sportsbook, price, and freshness
- Price-only WAIT triggers kept separate from pending inputs and policy rejections
- Decision timeline and alerts when state or price materially changes
Machine accessAPI add-on
Builder API
$99 add-on
Structured access to Posterior’s supported probabilities, immutable decisions, market states, public evidence and player context.
Requires Pro · $128/mo combined before applicable tax
- Public OpenAPI schema and delayed resolved CSV
- Bearer-protected supported production endpoints
- Active Posterior Pro plus Builder add-on required
- 100 requests per minute per active key by default
05 / MLB right now
What is happening now.
⌘ K
Enter at least two characters to search.
Milwaukee Brewers
Tampa Bay RaysOpen game →Posterior Wire
Open the Wire →Roster · MLB Trade RumorsRoyals Release Catcher Jorge Alfaro After Minor League Season
Kansas City has released veteran backstop Jorge Alfaro, who spent the entire 2026 campaign in the minors and never received a major league call-up.
Read the brief →Injury · MLB.comLeiter targeting 2027 comeback after ankle injuryTexas Rangers pitcher Jack Leiter is sidelined with an ankle injury and has shifted his focus to returning healthy for the 2027 season.
Read the brief →News · Yahoo SportsRocco Baldelli withdraws from Mariners manager search, citing family considerationsBaldelli reportedly removed himself from Seattle's managerial search, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, leaving the Mariners to narrow their candidate pool before month's end.
Read the brief →06 / Clubhouse
CHC
07 / Your club
Understand your club. Build what comes next.
Loading your club desk…
08 / Player discovery
Start with the players shaping the day.
Last 14 days versus last 30 days. This descriptive form comparison is supporting evidence, not a Posterior Decision. Hot form never overrides price or publication policy.
Current player comparison data is unavailable.
Browse searchable player almanacs →09 / Posterior Play · free
Make your calls. Beat the machine.
A free daily card of real baseball calls — no cash, no odds. Posterior takes its own side of every one, and your record against it is kept call by call.
Play today's card →11 / Apple ecosystem
Posterior for iPhone and Apple Watch · private beta
The MLB desk, wherever the game finds you.
Open the complete intelligence desk on iPhone, follow current game context through Live Activities and Dynamic Island, and carry the same trusted state onto widgets and Apple Watch.
iPhone deskToday, Live, Markets, Wire and the full MLB Almanac.
Live at a glanceNative Live Activities and Dynamic Island game context.
Home + Lock ScreenPosterior widgets built for quick, honest state checks.
Apple WatchA companion desk with Decisions, games, standings and Wire.
Included in the current private betaPrivate beta available to invited TestFlight testers · Not yet available on the App Store
12 / Posterior system
One connected MLB desk
Know. Participate. Explore. Decide.
Posterior connects the baseball day without collapsing distinct evidence types into one score or opinion.
Know
Live games, sourced Wire context and current league state form the shared MLB desk.
→Participate
Clubhouse questions let fans make evidence-attached calls without manufactured consensus.
→Explore
Team, player and Front Office surfaces connect roster facts, Posterior assessments and explicit assumptions.
→Decide
Posterior Decisions add independent probability, price discipline and permanent receipts for users who want them.
§ On the name
pos·te·ri·or
/pɒˈstɪərɪə/ · adjective & noun
- 1Statistics. the distribution of a belief once the evidence is in — what Bayes' theorem turns a prior into. — this is the one we mean.
- 2Anatomy, informal. the hindquarters; the seat; the rump. — yes. we are aware.
“We named it for the math. The second reading is a happy accident we've chosen to wear with dignity — cheek included.”
MLB PICKS · GRADED IN PUBLIC
Your next baseball pick deserves proof.
Explore today’s MLB picks, see the price that qualifies, and check the record before you decide. Every published pick is tracked through the final result—wins and losses included.
730–364 settled on the favorites board since Sep 2, 2026 · delayed ledger, CC BY 4.0
How Decisions qualifyOne engineer. One model. One sport. Every result on the record.
01 / Postseason
The 2026 Postseason · World Series
October, graded in public.
Every postseason Decision is filed before first pitch and graded from the box score, like every regular-season slate. Wins and losses stay on the record.
World Series
Milwaukee Brewers lead 2–0
Wild Card Series
- Houston Astros0Chicago White Sox2
- New York Yankees2Boston Red Sox0
- Atlanta Braves2Philadelphia Phillies1
- San Diego Padres2Chicago Cubs0
Division Series
- Tampa Bay Rays3New York Yankees0
- Cleveland Guardians3Chicago White Sox2
- Milwaukee Brewers3San Diego Padres1
- Los Angeles Dodgers3Atlanta Braves1
League Championship Series
- Tampa Bay Rays4Cleveland Guardians2
- Milwaukee Brewers4Los Angeles Dodgers0
World Series
- Milwaukee Brewers2Tampa Bay Rays0
Champion
- 2026 World SeriesTo be decided
02 / Official results
Official results · updated after every settlement
Last night, graded in public.
Posterior grades its own official Decisions from the box score and publishes the result whether the day won or lost. Nothing here is selected after the fact.
Final
Every Decision on the Oct 24, 2026 slate is settled and released to the public ledger.
75.0%Official favorites · 3/4 graded picks correct
- Record
- 3–1 4 of 4 picks resolved
- Flat-stake ROI
- +17.1% ROI +17.1% @ avg 1.54 (priced 4/4)
- Net units
- +0.68u Flat-stake result: +0.68u · 1u per pick at the captured price
- Accuracy is the selection objective; the price result is reported beside it, never promised.
- all 4 settled picks priced
View all 4 released picks
| Player | Market | Tier | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Chourio · Milwaukee Brewers | 1+ hits | STRONG | -200 | WIN |
| Jonathan Aranda · Tampa Bay Rays | 1+ hits | LEAN | -166 | WIN |
| William Contreras · Milwaukee Brewers | 1+ hits | LEAN | -172 | WIN |
| Yandy Díaz · Tampa Bay Rays | 1+ hits | STRONG | -210 | LOSS |
Historical record
The days before it, and the whole current policy, with the same definitions.
| Slate | W–L | Hit | ROI | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 | 3–1 | 75.0% | +17.1% | +0.68u |
| Fri Oct 23 | 2–2 | 50.0% | -26.7% | -1.07u |
| Mon Oct 19 | 3–1 | 75.0% | +13.9% | +0.55u |
| Fri Oct 16 | 6–0 | 100.0% | +55.2% | +3.31u |
| Thu Oct 15 | 3–5 | 37.5% | -42.6% | -3.41u |
| Wed Oct 14 | 2–2 | 50.0% | -23.9% | -0.96u |
| Tue Oct 13 | 2–2 | 50.0% | -24.0% | -0.96u |
| Pooled | 21–13 | 61.8% | -5.4% | -1.85u |
Pooled from 21 of 34 priced picks; all 34 settled picks priced. Computed from totals, not averaged across days.
Live since Sep 2, 2026. The board files market favorites the model does not dispute, anchored to the sharp consensus price, and is judged on hit rate. Earlier boards stay on the record under their own names.
- Official W–L
- 730–364
- Hit rate
- 66.7%
- ROI
- +1.0%
- Net units
- +11.45u
- 1,094 priced picks · 1,096 settled picks · 1,096 filed Decisions
- 100.0% of settled picks carried an executable price
Earlier policies · shown, never merged
Previous board (edge policy) Jun 7 – Sep 1, 2026: 215–341 · 38.7% · ROI -12.8%. Still public, never summed into the current board.
Audited replay through Jun 6, 2026: 1,405–751 · 65.2% over 2,156 rows. An offline replay, not a live board.
Today’s board · Oct 26, 2026Board published · no Decision cleared the bar
0 of 1 games carry a Decision · 0 WAIT · 0 PASS · locked Oct 26, 2:22 PM EDT
The slate was evaluated, but no market cleared Posterior’s complete publication standard. That is a published result, not a missing one.
Open today’s deskLatest public receiptLatest public receipt · WIN · Oct 24, 2026
The full Decision — filed probability, captured price, filing time and outcome — is shown below. Tonight’s grades post overnight and appear above by morning. See the Decision
Explore Posterior ProWhat these numbers are. Hit rate is wins over priced, settled Decisions; voids and pending picks are shown separately. ROI is net return over total flat 1u stakes at the price captured at lock from an allowlisted book — a diagnostic of the record, not a verified customer return. Settled picks without an executable price are reported as unpriced, never assumed. The current board selects market favorites the model does not dispute and is judged on hit rate; a positive ROI is reported when it happens, never promised. Individual results do not establish parlay performance.
Definitions and refresh
- Population: official Decisions filed under the current policy only. Shadow research, unpublished candidates, backtests and offline replays are excluded.
- Slate days are America/New_York calendar dates. Late games settle into their own slate.
- Pooled hit rate and ROI are recomputed from underlying totals; daily percentages are never averaged.
- Duplicate rows from repeated lock runs are collapsed to one Decision.
- Row-level receipts join the public ledger after the release delay; the totals above update as soon as settlement writes the record.
- Same source as the public accuracy page and
/api/mlb/accuracy.
Slates through Oct 24, 2026Aggregate computed Oct 26, 2:32 PM EDT
03 / Publication discipline
Publication discipline
A prediction isn’t enough. The price has to hold up.
Posterior checks market-price evidence and publication eligibility before a Decision enters the official board. Most of what the model evaluates never becomes a pick, and that restraint is the product.
- 01
Evidence before edge
A candidate needs a two-way market anchor from allowlisted books, fresh odds, a confirmed lineup and starter, and a large enough sample. Thin, one-sided or stale prices are display-only and never publish.
- 02
The price has to hold up
The board keeps only markets whose captured price sits inside the policy’s limit against the consensus anchor. If the price drifts past that limit before lock, the row stays WAIT — it is not filed.
- 03
Filed once, graded in public
A filed Decision is immutable: the book, price, quote time, probability and policy version are frozen at lock, settled from the box score, and released to the public ledger — losses included.
Published board · Oct 26, 2026Board published · no Decision cleared the bar
- Contracts assessed
- 0
- WAIT
- 0
- PASS
- 0
- Filed Decisions
- 0
One population, one lock archive: every filed Decision above was one of the assessed contracts. WAIT and PASS rows are visible in the product, never repackaged as picks. How the gates work
04 / Posterior Decisions
Posterior Price → Action Window → Receipt
What a Decision actually looks like.
A settled public Decision with its filed price, probability and recorded outcome. Later market movement never rewrites the original receipt. The example is the latest released one, chosen by date — never by result.
Historical resolved exampleSETTLED · WIN
Public receiptMilwaukee Brewers · Tampa Bay Rays at Milwaukee Brewers
Jackson Chourio
1+ hits Over 0.5 · 0.501 · Posterior Price-18765.2% independent filed probability
→02 · Action Window-177 or betterqualification limit · 2.0% minimum EV under this Decision’s policy
→03 · Permanent ReceiptWINOct 24, 2026
- Captured quote
- -200 · prophetx2 min at lock
- Market probability
- 66.1%-0.9 pts model gap
- Quote captured
- Oct 24, 4:30 PM EDTnot a decorative live timestamp
- Publication
- Oct 24, 4:32 PM EDTproduction-lock:bayesian · sharp-data-v2
05 / Access
Explore, decide, build
A baseball account first. Decision intelligence when you want it.
A free Posterior account lets fans personalize their club context and participate where the product supports it. Pro completes the independent Decision workflow. Builder exposes Posterior’s supported machine contract.
Play, and keep the receiptsalways
Posterior Account
$0
Personalize your Primary Club, join eligible Clubhouse calls, follow players, explore team context and inspect public MLB evidence with a free account.
- Posterior Play — tonight's card, graded from the box score
- Baseball IQ and a public baseball resume with your settled record
- Clubhouse calls with the evidence frozen at publish
- Explicit paused, unpublished, no-opportunity, and unavailable states
- Team desks, Front Office roster outlooks and the Roster Lab
Live decision intelligenceper month
Pro
$29/mo
Know what Posterior thinks the outcome is worth, the exact price that still qualifies, where the best eligible quote exists now, and what changed afterward.
- Posterior Price: independent probability and fair value
- Action Window: the worst price that still clears policy
- Current quote: exact eligible sportsbook, price, and freshness
- Price-only WAIT triggers kept separate from pending inputs and policy rejections
- Decision timeline and alerts when state or price materially changes
Machine accessAPI add-on
Builder API
$99 add-on
Structured access to Posterior’s supported probabilities, immutable decisions, market states, public evidence and player context.
Requires Pro · $128/mo combined before applicable tax
- Public OpenAPI schema and delayed resolved CSV
- Bearer-protected supported production endpoints
- Active Posterior Pro plus Builder add-on required
- 100 requests per minute per active key by default
Explore the baseball day
06 / MLB right now
Games and source-linked context
What is happening now—without synthetic activity.
Game states come from the official schedule. Wire items retain their source. Empty upstream windows stay empty.
GamesFull scoreboard →
⌘ K
Enter at least two characters to search.
Posterior WireOpen the Wire →
Roster · KC
Royals Release Catcher Jorge Alfaro After Minor League Season
MLB Trade Rumors · source retained ↗Injury · TEX
Leiter targeting 2027 comeback after ankle injury
MLB.com · source retained ↗News · SEA
Rocco Baldelli withdraws from Mariners manager search, citing family considerations
Yahoo Sports · source retained ↗08 / Your club
Roster reality, not a simulator
Understand your club. Build what comes next.
Posterior separates sourced roster facts from its outlook and from the assumptions you choose in Roster Lab.
Loading your club desk…
09 / Player discovery
One focused rail
Start with the players shaping the day.
This descriptive form comparison is supporting evidence, not a Posterior Decision. Hot form never overrides price or publication policy.
Current player comparison data did not clear the public read budget.
Browse searchable player almanacs10 / Posterior Play
Free · no cash, no odds
Make your calls. Beat the machine.
A free daily card of real baseball calls. Posterior takes its own side of every one — your record against it, kept honestly, call by call.
Five printed calls a day. Pick your sides, watch them settle from the box score, and keep a career record against Posterior's own number.
Play today's card11 / Apple ecosystem
Posterior for iPhone and Apple Watch · private beta
The MLB desk, wherever the game finds you.
Open the complete intelligence desk on iPhone, follow current game context through Live Activities and Dynamic Island, and carry the same trusted state onto widgets and Apple Watch.
iPhone deskToday, Live, Markets, Wire and the full MLB Almanac.
Live at a glanceNative Live Activities and Dynamic Island game context.
Home + Lock ScreenPosterior widgets built for quick, honest state checks.
Apple WatchA companion desk with Decisions, games, standings and Wire.
Included in the current private betaPrivate beta available to invited TestFlight testers · Not yet available on the App Store
12 / Posterior system
One connected MLB desk
Know. Participate. Explore. Decide.
Posterior connects the baseball day without collapsing distinct evidence types into one score or opinion.
Know
Live games, sourced Wire context and current league state form the shared MLB desk.
→Participate
Clubhouse questions let fans make evidence-attached calls without manufactured consensus.
→Explore
Team, player and Front Office surfaces connect roster facts, Posterior assessments and explicit assumptions.
→Decide
Posterior Decisions add independent probability, price discipline and permanent receipts for users who want them.
§ On the name
pos·te·ri·or
/pɒˈstɪərɪə/ · adjective & noun
- 1Statistics. the distribution of a belief once the evidence is in — what Bayes' theorem turns a prior into. — this is the one we mean.
- 2Anatomy, informal. the hindquarters; the seat; the rump. — yes. we are aware.
“We named it for the math. The second reading is a happy accident we've chosen to wear with dignity — cheek included.”
