Daily Bayesian-modeled MLB picks with a public track record, calibrated confidence tiers, and Kelly-sized bet recommendations.
How it works
Not the magic-eight-ball cappers service. A real model with real calibration and a public track record we grade ourselves against.
Graph-modeled probability
Neo4j captures park, umpire, weather, pitcher form, lineup, line movement as relationships — not isolated features. Bayesian updates flow through the graph, not just over a flat feature vector.
Self-calibrated
Every prediction's confidence is back-tested against historical accuracy. The model knows when it's actually a lock versus when it's guessing. The numbers tell you the truth.
Kelly-sized, never overbet
Bet sizing follows fractional Kelly against your stated bankroll. No 'max bet' emotional plays. No martingale. The math sizes; you press the button.
Three confidence tiers
Every pick is graded by the model's own back-tested calibration. Bet the STRONGs, sweat the LEANs, track the WATCHes.
Biggest edge, smallest count, highest discipline. The model is statistically certain it has the line beat.
Solid edges with caveats. Worth a partial-Kelly stake; not for max bets.
Lines worth tracking but not betting. Inform your reads on closing line value.
One tier. No upsells.
A single subscription. Everything the model produces, every day, with every grade.
- · Daily picks across moneyline + player props
- · Three calibrated confidence tiers
- · Kelly-sized bet recommendations against your bankroll
- · Full accuracy dashboard — Brier, ROI by tier, calibration plot
- · CLV tracking on every pick the morning after
- · Pre-game line snapshots + movement deltas