POSTERIOR · TODAY'S DESK
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Tonight

Saturday, October 17, 2026.

Posterior Research Desk

Today, the slate is active but the Decision Board has not been published yet. Live names stay with Pro. The public rec, the delayed ledger, and last night's receipt stay open.

Tonight
Not published
awaiting the canonical board archive
Public record
66.5%
1,076 resolved
Policy
Current public ledger policy
sharp-data-v2
Evidence
favorites board live
through 2026-10-16
Metric scope: resolved public official decisions · Current public ledger policy (sharp-data-v2) · 2026-09-02 through 2026-10-16 · Evidence: favorites board live · Freshness: current · Official decisions resolved through 2026-10-16. · Audit the public record →
Schedule state
LIVE
Checked Oct 17, 1:14 PM EDT
Current ET date
Board publication
CURRENT
Published Oct 17, 1:14 PM EDT
2026-10-17 ET slate · no publication yet
Current qualification
DEGRADED
Unavailable
Current monitored projection unavailable
Public settlement record
ARCHIVED
1,076 resolved through 2026-10-16
Aggregate computed Oct 15, 11:10 PM EDT
Runner sliding into second base ahead of the tag

Tonight's desk

Played to the last out.

The public rec appears only when a row clears every gate. Most generated rows never publish.

Tonight's board map

Matchups only. Signals stay locked.

1 pregame
not yet published
Tonight's pinned free pick

Unavailable right now. No pregame STRONG pick or executable LEAN fallback has cleared every publish gate, so Posterior will not force a bet. A clearly labeled resolved example follows.

Historical resolved exampleWIN
Yandy Díaz
1+ hits Over 0.5 · 0.5 · Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians · 2026-10-15 · -190 novig · bet to -174 · quote 5 min old at lock
Model
64.8%
Edge vs sharp
-1.3 pp
Result
WIN
Why the model published this

The model makes this 65% against a 66% market — barely a 1.3-point gap, so the case is context, not price.

  1. 01The model prices this 64.8%; novig at -190 implies 66.2% — a 1.3-point disagreement.
Posterior Record updates after every slateCreate free account →

Tonight's board — not yet published.

Board locks at first pitch · 8:08 PM ET · 6h 51m

Yesterday's board went 3–5. Every one of those receipts is public — the losses included. Read the recap →

The regular-season slate exists, but the Decision Board has not been published yet. This is different from a published board with no qualified opportunity. Opening board: 11:00 AM ET; then game-by-game updates every few minutes until 15 min before each actual first pitch.

Public receipt

Public proof remains visible.

Resolved picks, aggregate calibration, and the delayed CSV ledger stay open to everyone. Live identities remain protected for Pro when no public pick clears every publish gate.

Live calibration →

Predicted vs. actual probability per bucket, refreshed daily.

Morning recap →

Yesterday's slate, graded. Filed by 5:30 AM ET.

Methodology →

Six architectural pillars. 42 signals. No black box.