Tonight
Saturday, October 17, 2026.
Posterior Research Desk
Today, the slate is active but the Decision Board has not been published yet. Live names stay with Pro. The public rec, the delayed ledger, and last night's receipt stay open.

Tonight's desk
Played to the last out.
The public rec appears only when a row clears every gate. Most generated rows never publish.
Matchups only. Signals stay locked.
Unavailable right now. No pregame STRONG pick or executable LEAN fallback has cleared every publish gate, so Posterior will not force a bet. A clearly labeled resolved example follows.
The model makes this 65% against a 66% market — barely a 1.3-point gap, so the case is context, not price.
- 01The model prices this 64.8%; novig at -190 implies 66.2% — a 1.3-point disagreement.
Tonight's board — not yet published.
Board locks at first pitch · 8:08 PM ET · 6h 51m
Yesterday's board went 3–5. Every one of those receipts is public — the losses included. Read the recap →
The regular-season slate exists, but the Decision Board has not been published yet. This is different from a published board with no qualified opportunity. Opening board: 11:00 AM ET; then game-by-game updates every few minutes until 15 min before each actual first pitch.
Public proof remains visible.
Resolved picks, aggregate calibration, and the delayed CSV ledger stay open to everyone. Live identities remain protected for Pro when no public pick clears every publish gate.
Predicted vs. actual probability per bucket, refreshed daily.
Yesterday's slate, graded. Filed by 5:30 AM ET.
Six architectural pillars. 42 signals. No black box.

CHC