Learn how canonical Decisions, exact prices, Posterior Intelligence, account tracking, public proof, and research simulations fit together.
START HERE · 4 minute guide
How to read a Posterior Decision
Understand BET, WAIT, PASS, model probability, and the exact evidence frozen at lock.
01
The action
BET means a canonical row cleared every publication gate at its locked price. WAIT means evidence exists but the action boundary was not met. PASS means Posterior explicitly declined the market.
02
The probability
Model probability is an estimate with uncertainty, not a guarantee. Compare it with the market’s no-vig probability and read the surrounding evidence before treating the difference as meaningful.
03
The receipt
A Receipt preserves what Posterior knew, the quote it used, the policy version, and the timestamp. Later price movement or results do not rewrite it.