Baseball betting,
with the evidence attached.

A moneyline bet concerns which team wins. A run line adds a handicap, commonly 1.5 runs. A total concerns both teams' combined runs. Player props concern an individual outcome, such as a pitcher's strikeouts or a batter's total bases. First-five-innings markets cover only part of a game.

These are different contracts, not interchangeable predictions. Read the market, line, and settlement terms. This guide focuses on MLB; a market described here is not a promise that Posterior publishes a pick for it today.

In a hypothetical example, +150 pays $150 profit on a $100 winning stake; -150 requires a $150 stake for $100 profit. Returned stake is separate from profit. Those prices imply break-even win rates of 40% and 60%, respectively, before considering fees or other costs.

The two sides of a sportsbook market usually add to more than 100% implied probability because of the margin. A model's estimate is uncertain, and a favorite is not automatically a good bet. See how Posterior compares estimates with prices in the MLB betting model methodology.

Start with the daily MLB picks page for available public board context and the published record. The homepage shows the public pick when one is available. The full current board follows the access described on Pricing.

A pick belongs to a particular line, price, and timestamp. A later price is a new decision, not the original recommendation. Some slates have no qualified opportunity; waiting or passing is a valid outcome. Never read an old result as a current pick.

A projected average and the chance of clearing a line are different measurements. Two pitchers can share an average strikeout projection while having different chances of reaching seven. Workload uncertainty matters as well as the central estimate.

Explore the MLB player prop model for market-specific methods and public results, or the strikeout props lab for pitcher context. Compare the probability at the actual line with the offered price.

Look for predictions recorded before the outcome, the price available at the time, and a complete result history. Win rate alone does not establish profitability: the prices, stakes, losses, voids, and sample size all affect the interpretation. Keep backtests separate from live published results.

Inspect Posterior's public track record and delayed pick ledger. Calibration measures whether stated probabilities agree with outcomes across enough observations. Past results do not guarantee future returns.

Closing-line value compares a recorded price with a later closing reference for the same market. It is a diagnostic about price capture, not proof that one pick will win or a model will remain profitable.

A scratched starting pitcher or postponed game can change settlement. Check your operator's terms. Posterior's grading policy describes its own record; it does not replace a sportsbook's rules.