Definition
CLV compares lock price to later price
If a pick captures a better price than the market later offers, that can be evidence the model found value before the close.
Closing line value tracker
Did the model beat
the later market?
Closing-line value is not a trophy. It is one way to audit whether a model is finding prices before the market fully catches up. Posterior treats CLV as evidence beside settlement, calibration, and the public ledger.
Signal
CLV
Market movement after lock is tracked as an audit signal where available.
Outcome
W/L/V
Wins, losses, and voids still decide settlement. CLV does not replace results.
Calibration
Brier
Probability quality is evaluated with calibration and Brier-style evidence.
01 / Intent
Limits
CLV is not the same as winning
A pick can beat the close and still lose. A pick can win without proving the price was good. Posterior tracks both.
Record
The ledger keeps the context
The public dataset at /data keeps model probability, market probability, grade, and settlement together.
02 / How it works
Step 01
Record the locked model view
Posterior stores the model probability, market reference, available price, and pick grade at publication time.
Step 02
Observe later market movement
Where available, later prices are compared against the locked reference to see whether the model moved with or against the market.
Step 03
Settle the actual outcome
The game result still grades the row as won, lost, voided, or pending.
Step 04
Audit the full pattern
CLV, Brier score, hit rate, and loss-inclusive settlement are evaluated together instead of cherry-picked.
Public proof
A good process can still lose a game.
That is why Posterior separates market movement, calibration, and final settlement instead of pretending one metric explains everything.
03 / Questions
What is closing-line value?
Closing-line value compares the price captured at pick time against the price available later, usually near market close. Positive CLV can suggest the pick beat later market movement.
Does positive CLV guarantee profit?
No. CLV is process evidence, not a guarantee. Posterior keeps settlement and calibration visible because no single metric is enough.
Can I download the public record?
Yes. Posterior publishes a delayed public CSV at https://posterior.pro/data/picks.csv with resolved model rows and settlement context.
Posterior is baseball data, not a sportsbook. The public receipt lives at /data, the methodology lives at /methodology, and today's board starts at /today.