POSTERIOR · CALIBRATION
Calibration

The season calibration curve lives with the public record.

Calibration asks one plain question: when Posterior prices a market at a given probability, do outcomes land near that probability over enough resolved rows? The chart, table, and subscriber preview shell are published at /mlb/accuracy.

This page exists to keep public calibration links crawlable and useful. It does not invent a second record; it points to the canonical track-record surface and the CSV ledger behind it.

Primary proof

Accuracy dashboard

Current record, calibration plot, Brier context, and preview-safe gated panels.

CSV receipt

Download ledger

Resolved and voided public rows after the release delay, suitable for your own checks.

Method note

How to read it

The public explanation of bins, Brier score, backtest context, and settlement rules.

Backtest rows
157,304
Calibration error
~1.2pp
Backtest Brier
0.178

Backtest figures are labeled as historical calibration context, not live profit claims. Live season performance remains on the public accuracy dashboard.