Brady Singer to start for Reds against Cardinals in series finale Thursday

What happened

Official lineups have been released for Thursday's series finale between the Cincinnati Reds and the St. Louis Cardinals at Great American Ball Park, per Yahoo Sports. Brady Singer is slated to start for Cincinnati, with Michael McGreevy taking the ball for St. Louis. First pitch is scheduled for 12:40 PM ET.

The game closes out a five-game series between the two NL Central rivals. Per Yahoo Sports, the two clubs have split the first four games of the series, with Sal Stewart's late heroics on Wednesday night leaving the matchup even heading into Thursday's finale.

Why it matters

The stakes, such as they are, run in only one direction on Thursday afternoon. Per Yahoo Sports, FanGraphs placed the Reds' playoff probability at 0.2% as of Thursday morning — a number that functions less as a forecast and more as a formality. For Cincinnati, the most meaningful thing left on the schedule may simply be making life difficult for the team across the diamond.

The Cardinals, by contrast, are still operating in the territory where math and hope coexist. Per Yahoo Sports, St. Louis carries a 9.5% playoff probability, which is the kind of figure that keeps a front office from fully exhaling. That gap between 0.2% and 9.5% is, in its own way, the entire story of Thursday's game: one team playing for pride and spoiler status, the other playing for something that still has a pulse.

For the Cardinals, a loss to a Reds club with essentially nothing to play for would sting in a particular way. A win, on the other hand, extends whatever slim thread they're still pulling on.

The numbers

St. Louis enters Thursday's finale at 72-72 (.500), sitting third in the NL Central, 16 games back of the division lead. In the Wild Card picture, the Cardinals rank sixth, sitting 4.0 games relative to the cut line — which is to say, they are not close, but they are not mathematically eliminated either. The club arrives on a one-game winning streak heading into the series finale.

That 72-72 mark is the kind of record that tells a complete story in two numbers: a team that has been exactly as good as it has been bad, and is now running out of calendar to tip the balance. At 4.0 games outside the Wild Card cut line with the schedule winding down, the Cardinals need wins to accumulate quickly and losses from teams ahead of them to arrive on a similar schedule.

Where the club stands

St. Louis sits at exactly .500 on the season, third in the NL Central and 4.0 games outside the Wild Card cut line, ranked sixth in that race. Thursday's game against Cincinnati is followed immediately by a trip to Philadelphia to face the Phillies on Friday and Saturday, with Hunter Dobbins probable against Jesús Luzardo on Friday and Quinn Mathews lined up against Andrew Painter on Saturday.

That Philadelphia series will arrive as a significant test. The Cardinals' schedule does not offer many soft landings from here, and the Phillies represent the kind of opponent that can accelerate or arrest a playoff push in a hurry. Thursday's finale against Cincinnati, then, carries a quiet urgency: a win keeps the streak alive and provides a small cushion before a harder road.

For the Reds, the schedule context is different in every sense. At 0.2% playoff odds per Yahoo Sports, Cincinnati is not building toward October — it is building toward next year, and perhaps toward making sure the Cardinals don't get there either.

What we don't know yet

The lineups have been released, per Yahoo Sports, but the full details of how Singer and McGreevy will be deployed — pitch counts, bullpen availability, any late scratches — remain to be seen as game time approaches. The complete batting orders for either club are not specified in the available material, so the full tactical picture for Thursday's finale is still coming into focus.

It is also worth noting that Yahoo Sports' playoff probability figures — 0.2% for Cincinnati, 9.5% for St. Louis — are attributed to FanGraphs and reflect the state of things as of Thursday morning. Those numbers will shift with the result of this game and whatever else happens around the league on Thursday afternoon.

What to watch

The pitching matchup is the natural focal point. Singer takes the mound for a Reds club that has little to lose and, per Yahoo Sports, every reason to play the role of spoiler against a division rival still chasing October. McGreevy starts for a Cardinals team that needs wins to matter and needs them now.

Beyond the box score, the Cardinals' trajectory into the Philadelphia series is worth monitoring closely. At 72-72 and 4.0 games outside the Wild Card cut line, St. Louis is in the position of needing to win games it is supposed to win — and Thursday's finale against a Cincinnati club at 0.2% playoff odds qualifies. How the Cardinals handle that kind of pressure, against a team with nothing to lose and a rivalry to honor, will say something about what the next two weeks might look like.

The Reds, for their part, have already split this series. A win Thursday would give Cincinnati the series victory and send the Cardinals to Philadelphia having dropped the finale to a club that FanGraphs has essentially written off. In a pennant race measured in fractions, that is not nothing.