Brewers rank fourth in MLB runs despite fewest homers and highest ground ball rate

The Milwaukee Brewers have scored the fourth-most runs in the majors while hitting the fewest home runs, recording the fewest pull-side fly balls, posting the lowest swing rate, and leading baseball in ground ball rate, per a report from MLB.com's Mike Petriello shared by Brewers beat reporter Adam McCalvy.

The profile is unusual enough that it required an attempt to make sense of it, as McCalvy put it. Most high-scoring offenses in the modern game are built on launch angle and barrels; Milwaukee has apparently found a different path through the summer.

What happened

Petriello's report, shared Monday, examined the Brewers' offensive approach and its results. The club ranks fourth in runs scored across the majors despite occupying the bottom rung in home runs, pull-side fly balls, and swing rate, and the top spot in ground ball rate.

The combination is rare. Teams that hit the ball on the ground more than anyone else typically do not score more than nearly everyone else. Teams that swing less often and pull fewer fly balls are usually not found near the top of the run leaderboard. Milwaukee has managed all of it at once.

Why it matters

The Brewers are 88-55, leading the National League Central by a comfortable margin with a division magic number of 13. They have done so with an offense that does not resemble the typical contender's attack. Understanding how they score runs without the usual ingredients—home runs, pulled fly balls, aggressive swinging—offers a window into what has made this club successful and what might sustain it into October.

The approach also raises questions about sustainability. Ground ball offenses can be vulnerable to defensive shifts and positioning, and low swing rates can leave a team at the mercy of umpire strike zones. Whether Milwaukee's method holds up in the postseason, where pitching quality rises and margins shrink, is an open question. For now, the results have been strong enough to put the club in position to clinch the division within the next two weeks.

The numbers

The Brewers are 88-55, a .615 winning percentage that leads the National League Central. They have lost one in a row but carry a division magic number of 13 with roughly three weeks remaining in the regular season.

Milwaukee ranks fourth in the majors in runs scored, per the report. The club also leads baseball in ground ball rate and trails it in home runs, pull-side fly balls, and swing rate. The exact run total and the margins in each category were not specified in the report, but the rankings are clear: the Brewers are near the top in scoring and at the extremes in how they generate that offense.

The profile is internally consistent in one sense—teams that swing less and hit more ground balls will naturally hit fewer home runs and pull fewer fly balls—but the run production that accompanies it is the anomaly. Ground balls are generally the least valuable batted-ball type, and low swing rates can lead to called strikes and fewer balls in play. Milwaukee has evidently found ways to turn those tendencies into runs at a rate that only three other clubs have matched.

Where the club stands

The Brewers are 88-55, first in the National League Central, with a division magic number of 13. They have lost one game in a row. The club is on track to clinch its third division title in four years and its fifth playoff appearance in seven seasons.

Milwaukee opens a three-game series at the New York Mets on Wednesday, with Dustin May scheduled to start opposite Robert Stock. Jacob Misiorowski is slated to pitch Thursday against Sean Manaea. The Brewers return home Friday to face the Texas Rangers, with Logan Henderson set to oppose Cody Bradford.

The schedule ahead is manageable. The Mets are in the wild-card race but not the division race, and the Rangers are well out of contention. Milwaukee has an opportunity to pad its lead and reduce its magic number before the calendar turns to September, when rosters expand and the postseason picture sharpens.

What we don't know yet

The report did not include the Brewers' exact run total, home run total, or the specific ground ball, swing, and pull-side fly ball rates that define their profile. Those figures would clarify the magnitude of the gaps between Milwaukee and the rest of the league.

It is also unclear which players are driving the approach. The Brewers' roster includes a mix of contact-oriented hitters and power threats, and the report did not specify whether the ground ball and low-swing tendencies are concentrated in a few regulars or spread across the lineup. Knowing who is responsible for the profile would help explain how the club has sustained it over a full season.

Finally, the report did not address how Milwaukee's offense has performed in high-leverage situations or against quality pitching. A team can score runs in bunches against weaker opponents and still struggle when the stakes rise. Whether the Brewers' ground ball, low-swing approach translates to postseason success remains to be seen.

What to watch

The Brewers have three weeks to clinch the division and fine-tune their roster for October. Whether their offensive approach—ground balls, patience, and contact over power—can carry them through the postseason is the central question facing the club.

Milwaukee's upcoming series against the Mets and Rangers will offer a test. The Mets are fighting for a wild-card spot and will bring urgency; the Rangers, though out of contention, still field major-league pitching. How the Brewers score runs in those games, and whether they continue to do so without relying on home runs or pulled fly balls, will be worth monitoring.

The broader question is whether the profile is sustainable. Ground ball offenses can be neutralized by good infield defense, and low swing rates can be exploited by pitchers who live on the edges of the zone. If Milwaukee's approach is built on discipline, bat-to-ball skills, and situational hitting, it may hold up. If it is built on luck or favorable sequencing, it may not. The next three weeks, and the postseason beyond, will provide the answer.

For now, the Brewers are 88-55, fourth in the majors in runs scored, and first in the National League Central. They have done it their way, and their way has worked.