Cal Raleigh's three-homer game a bright spot in historically poor 2026 season

Cal Raleigh launched three home runs Monday night against the Philadelphia Phillies, the kind of outburst that defined his 2025 campaign. This season, it has been the exception in what FanGraphs describes as a historically poor collapse.

The Seattle catcher is missing his ZiPS wRC+ projection by 44 points, per FanGraphs, a gap that underscores the magnitude of his downturn. Raleigh hit 60 home runs in 2025 and finished second in American League MVP voting behind Aaron Judge. In 2026, FanGraphs reports, he has suffered through easily the worst season of his professional career.

What happened

Raleigh homered three times in Monday's game against Philadelphia, part of a four-home-run stretch across two nights as Seattle took the first two games of the series against one of baseball's best teams, per FanGraphs. The performance offered a glimpse of the player who dominated a year ago, but the outlet frames it as fleeting relief in a season defined by struggle.

The Mariners won those two games, but the broader picture remains bleak. Seattle sits comfortably below .500, FanGraphs notes, and has stayed in the divisional and Wild Card races only because the competition has been what the outlet calls exuberantly mediocre.

Why it matters

Raleigh's collapse carries weight beyond his own stat line. He was the centerpiece of Seattle's offense in 2025, a 60-home-run catcher who nearly won MVP. That production has vanished in 2026, and the Mariners have not found a way to replace it.

The 44-point gap between Raleigh's actual wRC+ and his ZiPS projection is a stark measure of underperformance. ZiPS, a projection system that accounts for aging curves and recent performance, expected Raleigh to maintain much of his 2025 form. Instead, he has delivered what FanGraphs characterizes as a historic downturn in magnitude.

For a Seattle club that entered the year with playoff expectations, Raleigh's struggles have been a central factor in the team's inability to separate from a mediocre pack. The Mariners are 66-77, third in the AL West and seven games back, with a Wild Card position that looks increasingly out of reach. They rank eighth in the Wild Card standings, 6.0 games relative to the cut line, and have lost three straight.

The numbers

Raleigh's wRC+ projection miss of 44 points, per FanGraphs, is the clearest numerical expression of his 2026 season. The outlet does not provide his actual wRC+ figure, but the gap alone tells the story: a player projected to be well above league average has instead fallen far short, dragging down an offense that has struggled to stay in contention.

The 60 home runs Raleigh hit in 2025 made him one of the most productive catchers in recent memory. That total, combined with his second-place MVP finish behind Judge, set expectations for 2026 that have not been met. FanGraphs notes that the collapse has been historic in its magnitude, a phrase that suggests Raleigh's downturn ranks among the steepest year-over-year declines in recent baseball history.

Where the club stands

Seattle is 66-77 (.462), third in the AL West and seven games back. In the Wild Card race, they rank eighth, 6.0 games relative to the cut line, and have lost three straight. With roughly three weeks remaining in the regular season, the Mariners' playoff odds depend on a combination of their own turnaround and continued mediocrity from the teams ahead of them.

FanGraphs notes that Seattle has remained in the divisional and Wild Card races only because the competition has been exuberantly mediocre, a characterization that captures both the Mariners' struggles and the broader weakness of the American League's middle tier. A team at .462 would typically be out of contention by late August, but Seattle still has a mathematical path to October.

The schedule offers little immediate relief. The Mariners face Philadelphia again Wednesday at T-Mobile Park, with Bryan Woo set to oppose Jesús Luzardo. They then travel to Toronto for a weekend series, with Emerson Hancock scheduled to face Dylan Cease on Friday and Kade Anderson opposing José Soriano on Saturday. The Blue Jays are not a playoff contender, but the Phillies are one of baseball's best teams, per FanGraphs, and the Mariners will need to sustain the kind of performance they showed in the first two games of this series to keep their postseason hopes alive.

What we don't know yet

FanGraphs does not specify what has driven Raleigh's collapse. The outlet describes the season as historic in its magnitude but does not attribute the downturn to injury, mechanical changes, or any other identifiable cause. The 44-point wRC+ miss suggests a broad offensive decline, but the underlying factors remain unclear.

It is also uncertain whether Raleigh can sustain the production he showed in the first two games against Philadelphia. A four-home-run stretch is a small sample, and FanGraphs frames Monday's three-homer game as an exception rather than a sign of a turnaround. The Mariners need Raleigh to return to something resembling his 2025 form if they are to make a late-season push, but there is no indication in the report that such a shift is underway.

Seattle's playoff chances depend on factors beyond Raleigh's bat. The Mariners must close a 6.0-game gap in the Wild Card race with roughly three weeks remaining, and they must do so while other teams in the hunt continue to struggle. FanGraphs notes that the competition has been mediocre, but mediocrity can still be enough to hold off a team operating at .462.

What to watch

The immediate question is whether Raleigh can build on his two-game surge. Three home runs in one night is a reminder of his 2025 ceiling, but the broader 2026 sample suggests that ceiling is no longer accessible on a consistent basis. If the Mariners are to make a playoff push, they will need Raleigh to produce at a level closer to his projection than to his season line.

Seattle's series against Philadelphia concludes Wednesday, and the Mariners will need to take at least two of three from one of baseball's best teams to keep their postseason hopes realistic. The weekend trip to Toronto is less daunting on paper, but the Mariners have lost three straight and cannot afford to drop games against a non-contender.

The broader question is whether Seattle's competition will continue to be exuberantly mediocre, as FanGraphs puts it, or whether one of the teams ahead of the Mariners in the Wild Card race will pull away. A 6.0-game gap with roughly three weeks remaining is not insurmountable, but it requires both a hot streak from Seattle and continued stumbles from the clubs above them.

Raleigh's 2026 season has been a historic collapse, per FanGraphs, but the Mariners are still mathematically alive. Monday's three-homer game was a reminder of what he can do. The question is whether it was an exception or the start of something more.