Cal Raleigh's three-homer night offers reprieve in historically poor 2026 season

Cal Raleigh launched three home runs in a single game Monday night against the Phillies — a performance that might have felt, briefly, like a return to his 2025 form. That was the season in which he hit 60 home runs and finished second in American League MVP voting to Aaron Judge. Per FanGraphs, the three-dinger outburst stands as an exception to what the outlet describes as a historically poor 2026 season, one that has unfolded far below his own expectations and the projections built around him.

What happened

Over two nights against one of baseball's best teams, Raleigh accounted for four home runs total, and Seattle took the first two games of the series against Philadelphia. Those victories offered something the 2026 Mariners have not offered in abundance: the feeling of watching a team that can beat a good opponent. Per FanGraphs, that feeling has been fleeting this year.

The three-homer game on Monday was the sharper of the two nights, and it arrived in a season that FanGraphs characterizes as the worst of Raleigh's professional career. The gap between what he did in 2025 — 60 home runs, a near-MVP — and what 2026 has produced is, per the outlet, historic in its magnitude. One night does not close that gap, but it does complicate the narrative in the most useful possible way.

Why it matters

The operational stakes here run in two directions at once. Raleigh is the kind of player whose presence at the top of a lineup can change what a pitching staff is asked to do, and his 2025 season was the clearest possible demonstration of that. When a catcher who hit 60 home runs the previous year is missing his ZiPS wRC+ projection by 44 points, per FanGraphs, the ripple effects are felt across the entire offensive structure.

For the Mariners, the broader context is one of fragile contention. Per FanGraphs, Seattle has remained in divisional and Wild Card races primarily because its competition has been, in the outlet's phrasing, "exuberantly mediocre." That is not the foundation a front office draws up in March, but it is the foundation the Mariners are working with in late August. In that environment, a catcher who can produce at the plate — even sporadically, even in a season this far below his own standard — becomes essential to any realistic playoff push.

The series against Philadelphia, one of baseball's best teams per FanGraphs, provided a useful stress test. Winning the first two games while Raleigh was hitting home runs in bunches is the version of this team that could theoretically make a run. The version that has produced a 66-77 record is the version that has been more consistently present.

The numbers

Raleigh is missing his ZiPS wRC+ projection by 44 points in 2026, per FanGraphs. For context, in 2025 he hit 60 home runs and finished second in American League MVP voting to Aaron Judge — a season the outlet describes as one that naturally generates expectations for the year that follows. The 44-point gap between projection and performance is what FanGraphs characterizes as historically poor, not merely a slow stretch or a mechanical adjustment waiting to click.

The Mariners sit at 66-77 (.462) on the season.

Where the club stands

Seattle is 66-77 (.462), third in the AL West and 7 games back of the division leader. The club ranks eighth in the Wild Card race, sitting 6.0 games relative to the cut line — close enough to remain technically alive, distant enough that the math requires help from several directions. The Mariners enter Wednesday having lost their last three games.

The schedule in the immediate term does not soften. Wednesday, August 26, brings the final game of the Philadelphia series at T-Mobile Park, with Bryan Woo probable for Seattle against Jesús Luzardo for the Phillies. The club then travels to Toronto for back-to-back games: Emerson Hancock is the probable starter Friday, August 28, against Dylan Cease, and Kade Anderson takes the ball Saturday, August 29, opposite José Soriano. Three games against the Blue Jays, on the road, with a Wild Card spot still theoretically in reach — the schedule is not conspiring to make this easier.

What we don't know yet

FanGraphs describes Raleigh's 2026 collapse as historic in magnitude but notes that both he and the Mariners could still reach October baseball. What the outlet does not resolve — and what Monday's game cannot resolve — is whether the three-homer performance represents a genuine shift in his season or a single exceptional night in an otherwise difficult stretch. The 44-point gap between his ZiPS projection and his actual wRC+ is a season-long number; one game moves it, but it does not erase it.

What to watch

The next several series will begin to clarify which version of Raleigh is operating right now. A catcher performing anywhere near his 2025 level would materially change what the Mariners' offense looks like down the stretch; a return to the depths of his 2026 performance would leave Seattle dependent on other contributors to sustain any playoff viability. Per FanGraphs, the Mariners have survived this long on the mediocrity of their competition — but the upcoming schedule, starting with the conclusion of the Philadelphia series Wednesday and continuing through Toronto, will ask the roster to do more than simply outlast a weak division. Whether Raleigh's Monday night was a turning point or an outlier is the question the next few weeks will answer.