Giants at 58-83 are on pace for one of the worst BaseRuns underperformances since 2002

What happened

The San Francisco Giants entered 2026 with genuine optimism and are exiting it with a place in the record books nobody wanted. At 58-83 — updated to 59-84 as of September 6 — the club owns the National League's second-worst record and has not spent a single day above .500 this season, per Jay Jaffe at FanGraphs. More striking than the raw record is the gap between where the Giants actually are and where their underlying performance suggests they should be: Jaffe reports that San Francisco is tracking toward the fourth-largest margin between actual wins and BaseRuns-projected wins of any team since 2002, the earliest year for which FanGraphs carries historical BaseRuns data.

That is a specific and uncomfortable kind of bad. Losing a lot of games is one thing. Losing significantly more games than your own run-creation and run-prevention profile would predict is another conversation entirely.

Why it matters

To understand why this distinction matters, it helps to know what BaseRuns is actually measuring. As Jaffe explains, where Pythagorean projections use a team's actual runs scored and runs allowed to estimate an expected winning percentage, BaseRuns works one step further back — it estimates runs scored and allowed from the underlying statistical components that produce them: hits, walks, hit-by-pitches, stolen bases, and so on. Those estimated run totals are then fed into the Pythagenpat formula, a variant of Bill James's Pythagorean formula in which the exponent is itself a function of the scoring environment, expressed as X = ((RS + RA)/G)^0.287. The result is a second-order estimate of winning percentage.

The practical implication is that a team badly trailing its BaseRuns projection isn't just unlucky in close games — it is underperforming relative to the very components that generate runs in the first place. The Giants aren't simply losing the coin flips; they are, by this measure, converting their underlying production into wins at a historically poor rate.

Jaffe notes that the Giants have ignominious company in the historical table of largest such margins, including a couple of other teams from this same 2026 season. San Francisco's situation is not unique to this year, but the scale of the gap puts them in rare territory across more than two decades of data.

The numbers

The Giants' record stands at 59-84 (.413), placing them fourth in the NL West and 26.5 games behind the division leader. In the Wild Card picture, they rank 11th, sitting 16.0 games relative to the cut line — a number that, combined with their elimination from the division race, makes the final weeks of this season a matter of organizational evaluation rather than postseason positioning.

The current streak is W1, meaning the Giants have won their most recent game, which is the kind of data point that lands differently when the surrounding context is 59-84.

Where the club stands

### Is there any postseason path remaining?

No. The Giants have been eliminated from the division race and sit 16.0 games relative to the Wild Card cut line. The playoff conversation is over. What remains is a September schedule that will serve as an audition reel for roster decisions this winter.

The backdrop to the current standing is worth recalling. As Jaffe notes, San Francisco finished 81-81 last year, and the offseason was designed to push the club past that threshold. President of baseball operations Buster Posey hired Tony Vitello — straight from the college ranks — as manager, added free agents Luis Arraez and Harrison Bader to address weak spots in the lineup, and brought in Rafael Devers, acquired mid-2025, for what was expected to be his first full season with the club. The goal, per Jaffe, was to reach the playoffs for the first time since 2021, which would have been just the second postseason appearance in the past 10 seasons. The 2026 season has not gone that direction.

The roster has been in active motion over the past week. The Giants claimed right-hander Joel Kuhnel off waivers from the Brewers on September 4 — Kuhnel is out of options and will occupy an active roster spot. They also claimed infielder Brett Harris off waivers from the Red Sox on September 3 and optioned him to Triple-A. Pitcher Cesar Perdomo was selected from Triple-A as part of the September roster expansion that moves active rosters from 26 to 28 players. And Darren Baker was reportedly signing a minor-league deal with the organization on September 2, a transaction that would not add him to the 40-man roster.

The upcoming schedule offers no particular relief. The Giants close out their series at Citi Field on Sunday, September 6, with Cesar Perdomo — the same pitcher selected from Triple-A just days ago — drawing the start against the Mets' Christian Scott. The club then returns to Oracle Park to host the St. Louis Cardinals on Monday, September 7, with Logan Webb taking the ball against a Cardinals starter listed as TBD, followed by another Cardinals game Tuesday, September 8.

What we don't know yet

The FanGraphs piece, as Jaffe frames it, is a diagnostic rather than a verdict. The BaseRuns framework identifies the gap; it does not explain with certainty what caused it. Whether the underperformance reflects sequencing, bullpen deployment, situational hitting, or some combination of factors that will regress in either direction is not resolved by the numbers alone.

It is also worth noting that the historical comparison Jaffe draws — fourth-largest margin since 2002 — is framed as a current tracking figure. The Giants have games remaining, and the final margin will depend on how the rest of the season plays out.

On the roster side, the organizational implications of a 59-84 finish — what it means for Vitello's first year, for the free-agent additions, for the Devers era in San Francisco — are questions the front office will face this winter. None of those decisions have been reported.

What to watch

The most immediate baseball question is how Perdomo handles his start Sunday against New York. Selected from Triple-A as part of the September expansion, he steps into a rotation spot with the club already eliminated, which is precisely the kind of low-stakes, high-information opportunity that front offices use to evaluate depth options heading into an offseason.

Logan Webb's Monday start against St. Louis is worth tracking for different reasons — Webb has been one of the few constants in a difficult season, and his September outings will inform how the Giants think about their rotation construction going forward, even if that conversation belongs to the offseason rather than the standings.

The broader watch item, per Jaffe's framing, is whether the BaseRuns gap narrows or widens over the final weeks. If San Francisco finishes with the fourth-largest such margin since 2002, it will be a data point that shapes how the organization — and outside analysts — evaluate what went wrong in a season that was supposed to be something different.