Justin Steele still weeks from throwing as Cubs UCL recovery timeline slips again

What happened

Justin Steele is not throwing a baseball yet, and the Cubs' update on the left-hander this week did not change that. Per Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic, the Cubs relayed that Steele has been cleared to progress to strengthening work and then plyo balls — but that he remains multiple weeks away from actually picking up a ball and throwing it. Manager Craig Counsell framed the update as a positive step, in the sense that Steele is now moving through standard recovery benchmarks. The timeline, however, has been pushed again.

Why it matters

Steele had elbow surgery to address his ulnar collateral ligament in April of last year. By January of 2026, he was throwing off a mound, and there was genuine optimism around the organization that he could return relatively early in the season. That optimism ran into a wall in late April, when Steele suffered a flexor strain. At that point, Counsell said the Cubs no longer expected Steele back before the All-Star break — a meaningful recalibration from where the club had been just weeks earlier.

This week's update, as laid out by Sharma, suggests the timeline has moved further still. Even in a best-case scenario, per the report, Steele would need to start throwing again before any progression toward game action could begin — and he is still multiple weeks from that first step. The All-Star break, already cited as a threshold he was unlikely to clear, now looks more like a floor than a ceiling for any potential return.

Is Steele expected back before the All-Star break?

No. Per the report relayed by Sharma, Counsell said after the late-April flexor strain setback that the Cubs no longer expected Steele back before the break. This week's update — that Steele remains multiple weeks from throwing — does not change that picture and, if anything, reinforces it. A return before the break would require Steele to begin throwing soon, build through a bullpen progression, and complete a rehab assignment. Under general league mechanics, pitchers on a rehab assignment have up to 30 days before they must be activated or moved. None of that clock has started yet.

The UCL surgery, the subsequent flexor strain, and now a second delay form a recovery arc that has been longer and more complicated than the Cubs anticipated when Steele was throwing off a mound in January. Counsell's effort to find positive framing this week — that Steele is progressing through standard steps — is the kind of thing a manager says when the news is not quite good but is not quite bad either. "Cleared for plyo balls" and "multiple weeks from throwing" can coexist in the same sentence and still leave a considerable stretch of calendar between here and a Cubs start.

Where the club stands

The Cubs carry a record of 89-73 (.549), which places them second in the NL Central, 14 games back in the division race — a race from which they have been eliminated. Their Wild Card standing sits at rank 2, with a +1.0 margin relative to the cut line. That is a position comfortable enough to breathe but not comfortable enough to stop watching the scoreboard, and it makes every rotation decision between now and the end of the regular season carry real weight.

Chicago enters Thursday on a one-game winning streak, heading to PNC Park where Colin Rea is the probable starter against Paul Skenes. Friday opens a stretch at Busch Stadium, where Shota Imanaga draws Andre Pallante. Saturday, Ben Brown takes the ball against Kyle Leahy. That is a rotation cycling through Rea, Imanaga, and Brown — all of whom are carrying innings that Steele was expected to absorb when the season began.

The practical consequence of Steele's extended absence is not abstract. A 26-man active roster has a finite number of starting pitcher slots, and the Cubs have been filling Steele's projected spot with other arms for the better part of a year. Under general league mechanics, pitchers are placed on the 15-day injured list at minimum, with the option to transfer to the 60-day IL — which removes the player from the 40-man roster count and creates roster flexibility. The Cubs have had months to manage that accounting. The question now is whether Steele can contribute anything meaningful to a Wild Card race that will be decided well before the calendar turns.

What we don't know yet

The report, as relayed by Sharma, does not specify a target return date beyond the general framing that Steele is multiple weeks from throwing. It does not detail the nature or severity of the flexor strain beyond the diagnosis itself, nor does it indicate whether the Cubs have set any internal milestones beyond the current strengthening and plyo ball phase.

Counsell's characterization of the update as positive is attributed but not elaborated. Whether "positive" means the flexor strain has fully resolved, or simply that Steele is no longer in a holding pattern, is not made clear in the report. This is a report relayed through Sharma and The Athletic, not a formal club announcement, and the timeline language throughout reflects that distinction.

What to watch

The most immediate thing to track is when Steele actually begins throwing. That step — not the strengthening work, not the plyo balls, but live throwing — is the gate through which everything else must pass. Until that happens, any discussion of a return date is speculative, and the Cubs have already learned once this spring that optimism about Steele's timeline has a way of meeting reality on its own schedule.

Beyond that, watch how the Cubs manage their rotation depth as the Wild Card race tightens. With a +1.0 margin and a schedule running through Pittsburgh and St. Louis in the coming days, the arms currently in the rotation are the arms that will carry this stretch. If Steele does eventually return, the question of how he fits into a rotation that has been operating without him for over a year will be its own story. For now, the Cubs are waiting — and so, apparently, is Steele.