Kodai Senga expected to make next start despite rocky return for Mets

Kodai Senga is expected to remain in the New York Mets' rotation for his next scheduled start, per Yahoo Sports, even after a difficult return from a lengthy IL stint that raised fresh questions about where his command actually stands.

What happened

Senga took the mound Tuesday night against the Cincinnati Reds in his first big-league appearance in nearly two months, and the opening inning did not go as planned. He allowed four earned runs in the first frame, walked four batters, and struggled to establish his forkball — the pitch that, when it is working, makes him one of the harder right-handers to square up in the National League. The Mets lost 5-3.

The final three innings of his outing were a different story. Senga settled in enough after the first-inning damage that manager Carlos Mendoza indicated the start bought him another turn. "Pretty sure he will," Mendoza said, per Yahoo Sports, when asked whether Senga would make his next scheduled start. That is a vote of confidence, albeit a carefully hedged one — "pretty sure" is not exactly a proclamation carved in stone, and Mendoza made clear neither he nor Senga was satisfied with how Tuesday unfolded.

Senga, speaking through an interpreter, acknowledged the rust. He described being back on a major-league mound after an extended absence and not being able to pull everything together early, per Yahoo Sports. He also admitted his forkball was not as sharp as he wanted it to be.

Why it matters

The forkball is not a secondary offering for Senga — it is the engine of his entire approach. When it has late, diving action, hitters are left waving at something that looks like a fastball until it isn't. When it is flat or inconsistent, as it reportedly was Tuesday, the pitch that is supposed to generate weak contact and swings-and-misses instead becomes a ball-four waiting to happen. Four walks in a single start is the kind of command line that tends to follow a pitcher back to the film room for a while.

The more layered question is what Tuesday's outing actually tells us. A rough first start after a lengthy IL absence is not unusual — pitchers returning from extended time off frequently need a start or two to find their release point, their timing, and their feel for secondary pitches. Senga himself framed it that way. But the gap between "he'll shake off the rust" and "he's not quite ready" is one that Tuesday's outing did not fully resolve.

Yahoo Sports noted that command was the central issue and that Senga's readiness remains a genuine question following the start. That uncertainty is worth sitting with rather than explaining away.

Is Senga starting his next turn?

Per Yahoo Sports, Mendoza said he is "pretty sure" Senga will make his next scheduled start. That is the manager's stated expectation, not a club announcement, and it comes with the implicit caveat that how Senga responds between starts — in bullpen sessions, in how the forkball feels — will matter. The skipper was candid that neither he nor Senga was pleased with Tuesday's performance, which suggests the next start carries some weight as a proving ground.

The numbers

The Mets enter Wednesday sitting at 74-88 (.457), fifth in the NL East and 20 games back in the division. They have also been eliminated from the Wild Card race, sitting 14.0 games relative to the cut line and ranked 10th in that chase. They are currently on a one-game losing streak.

There is no ambiguity in those standings: this is a club playing out the schedule rather than chasing October. That context shapes how the Senga situation reads operationally. A team in a pennant race might be asking harder questions about whether a pitcher who walked four in his first inning back is ready to eat innings in a meaningful series. For the 2026 Mets, the calculus is different — getting Senga stretched out, finding his footing, and building toward whatever comes next is arguably the more useful outcome than pulling him after one rough outing.

Where the club stands

The Mets head to Philadelphia for back-to-back series dates after wrapping up in Cincinnati. Wednesday at Great American Ball Park features Nolan McLean against Nick Lodolo. The club then travels to Citizens Bank Park, where Sean Manaea is lined up against Aaron Nola on Thursday, and Freddy Peralta faces Cristopher Sánchez on Saturday.

That schedule — a road trip through a Reds club they just lost to, followed by a visit to a Phillies team — is not the softest stretch of games in which to be sorting out rotation questions. But with the Mets eliminated from both the division and Wild Card races, the series outcomes matter less than what the organization learns about its pitchers between now and the end of the year.

Senga's next start, whenever it comes, will be watched closely — not because the Mets need a win, but because the question of what he is at this point in the season is genuinely open.

What we don't know yet

Yahoo Sports does not specify when Senga's next start is scheduled, which opponent he would face, or how many innings he is expected to be built up to. The nature of the IL stint — its length is described as nearly two months, but no diagnosis or specific timeline is attached in the reporting — also remains unaddressed in terms of what it means for his workload going forward.

Whether the forkball command issues Tuesday were a one-start artifact of extended inactivity or something that will require more time to iron out is, per Yahoo Sports, still an open question. Mendoza's "pretty sure" is the most definitive language on record, and it is doing considerable work.

What to watch

The forkball is the tell. If Senga's next start shows improved command of that pitch — fewer walks, more swings-and-misses in the zone — then Tuesday reads as exactly what he described: an adjustment period after a long absence. If the walk rate stays elevated and the forkball remains inconsistent, the conversation about his readiness will get louder regardless of what the standings say.

Mendoza's framing after that next outing will also be worth noting. "Pretty sure" is a manager extending the benefit of the doubt after a rough return. What he says after start two will carry more information.