Kyle Leahy is the probable starter for Cardinals against Reds in game 3 Tuesday

Kyle Leahy is the probable starter for the St. Louis Cardinals in game 3 of their series against the Cincinnati Reds on Tuesday night, per Yahoo Sports. Andrew Abbott is the scheduled starter for Cincinnati. First pitch at Great American Ball Park is set for 5:40 p.m. central time.

What happened

Yahoo Sports reported the pitching matchup ahead of Tuesday's contest: Leahy on the mound for St. Louis, Abbott for Cincinnati, in the third game of the series. The game is scheduled at Great American Ball Park.

Why it matters

The Cardinals arrive at this series at an interesting crossroads — 72-72 and sitting precisely at .500, which is either a glass-half-full or a glass-half-empty situation depending on your disposition and your familiarity with the NL Central standings. St. Louis is 3rd in the division, 16 games back of the leader, which effectively closes the door on the division race. The Wild Card is a different conversation, though not a comfortable one: the Cardinals rank 6th in the Wild Card picture, sitting 4.0 games relative to the cut line. That margin is not insurmountable, but it is not a margin that rewards passive baseball, either.

In that context, a three-game series against a division opponent carries real weight. Every game in this stretch has the potential to move the needle — in either direction — on a Wild Card chase that has little room left for drift.

Leahy's start represents another turn through the rotation as St. Louis tries to string together enough wins to close that 4.0-game gap. The Cardinals need production from every spot in the rotation, and Tuesday's matchup against Abbott and the Reds is the next opportunity to collect a win that matters in the standings.

Where the club stands

St. Louis enters Tuesday on a one-game winning streak, which is the kind of streak that earns exactly one day of good feelings before the next probable starter takes the ball. The Cardinals are 72-72 (.500), 3rd in the NL Central, 16 games back of the division leader, and ranked 6th in the Wild Card race at 4.0 games relative to the cut line.

The series at Cincinnati runs through Thursday, and the rotation is lined up for all three games. After Leahy and Abbott square off Tuesday, Wednesday brings Matthew Liberatore to the mound for St. Louis against Chase Burns for Cincinnati. Thursday closes the series with Michael McGreevy probable for the Cardinals against Brady Singer for the Reds — all three games at Great American Ball Park.

That is three consecutive days of baseball against the same opponent, which tends to clarify things quickly. A sweep in either direction would meaningfully reshape the Cardinals' Wild Card calculus heading into the final weeks of the regular season.

The schedule offers no breaks after Cincinnati. St. Louis will need to navigate this series and then turn its attention to whatever comes next, knowing that the margin for error is thin and the number of games remaining to make up ground is shrinking.

What we don't know yet

Yahoo Sports reported the probable starters, but probable pitchers are exactly that — probable. Nothing in the material constitutes a club announcement, and pitching plans have a way of changing between the time they are reported and the time the lineup card is posted. Whether Leahy or Abbott ultimately takes the first pitch of Tuesday's game remains to be seen.

Beyond the immediate matchup, the broader question of whether the Cardinals can close a 4.0-game Wild Card gap over the final stretch of the season is not answered by any single game — or any single probable starter. The material does not address the club's injury situation, roster construction, or any transactions that might affect the rotation or lineup.

The Cardinals' path to the postseason depends on factors beyond who starts Tuesday in Cincinnati, but those factors are not detailed in the material. What is detailed is the rotation plan for three games, and that plan begins with Leahy.

What to watch

### Can the Cardinals gain ground in the Wild Card race this week?

At 4.0 games relative to the cut line and ranked 6th in the Wild Card standings, St. Louis needs to accumulate wins while other clubs drop them — a combination that is easier to describe than to engineer. This three-game series against Cincinnati is a direct opportunity to do the former.

The rotation across the series — Leahy, Liberatore, McGreevy — represents the Cardinals' current depth as the calendar approaches September. Under general league rules, rosters expand from 26 to 28 players on September 1, which gives clubs additional flexibility in how they deploy pitching and position players in the final weeks. How St. Louis manages that transition, and whether the current rotation holds through the series, will be worth tracking.

The Leahy-Abbott matchup Tuesday sets the tone. A Cardinals win would extend the winning streak and apply at least modest pressure on the clubs ahead of them in the Wild Card standings. A loss would push St. Louis further from the cut line with fewer games remaining to recover. Neither outcome is predetermined by a probable starter list, but the probable starter list is where it starts — and per Yahoo Sports, that list has Leahy taking the ball Tuesday night in Cincinnati.

The three-game series offers St. Louis a chance to make a statement in the Wild Card race or to fall further behind. The Cardinals control only what happens on their side of the field, and that begins with Leahy's performance against a Cincinnati lineup that will be looking to do the same thing St. Louis is trying to do: win games in August that matter in October.

Tuesday's first pitch is set for 5:40 p.m. central time. The probable starter is Leahy. The stakes are the Wild Card race. The rest is up to the baseball.