Nick Martinez gets the ball for Rays in World Series Game 1 vs. Brewers

What happened

Nick Martinez will start Game 1 of the World Series for the Tampa Bay Rays tonight at American Family Field, per MLB Trade Rumors' Charlie Wright. Drew Rasmussen, whose name had circulated as a possible Game 1 option, will reportedly be held back for Game 2 on Saturday. Martinez will face Milwaukee's Jacob Misiorowski when the series gets underway at 7 p.m. CT.

The decision resolves what had been an open question heading into the series opener. As Wright noted, rumblings that Tampa Bay would not hand Rasmussen the Game 1 ball turned out to be correct — a detail that had been circulating for days before the report landed. The club had not publicly named a starter before Wright's piece, and no formal club announcement has been issued.

Why it matters

Martinez is not an unfamiliar name in high-leverage October situations, but he is also not the arm most observers would have circled as the Game 1 choice. The veteran right-hander carries a 3.10 ERA from the regular season — a number that, per Wright, was not well-supported by his underlying metrics. That gap between surface results and process is the kind of thing that tends to get footnoted quietly during a pennant race and then loudly during a World Series broadcast.

What the Rays have in their favor is recent evidence. Martinez held the Cleveland Guardians to one run on two hits across 5 1/3 innings in Game 4 of the ALCS, a performance that came in cold, difficult conditions after the game had already been postponed once due to heavy rain. That outing, in a series Tampa Bay eventually won after falling behind two games to one, is the most direct data point available for what Martinez can do when the calendar says October and the margin for error shrinks.

The decision to hold Rasmussen for Game 2 also reflects a broader roster management logic. With the series opening in Milwaukee for two games before a travel day Sunday, the Rays can deploy their rotation in sequence without burning either starter on short rest. Per MLB Trade Rumors, Rasmussen is the probable for Saturday against Logan Henderson, and the series shifts to Tropicana Field for Game 3 on Monday.

The numbers

The Rays finished the regular season 98-64 (.605), first in the AL East. That record is the backdrop against which every October decision gets made — a club that won that many games has earned the right to be unconventional with its pitching choices, and Tampa Bay has rarely been conventional about pitching choices anyway.

On the other side of the matchup, Wright's piece flags something worth understanding before the first pitch: both Tampa Bay and Milwaukee ranked as the two worst teams by Statcast's ABS Runs Above Average metric in the regular season, per MLB.com's Mike Petriello. The challenge system, which allows hitters to contest pitch calls, produced essentially no net value for either of these clubs during the year. Brewers hitters challenged just seven pitches all postseason. Rays hitters have not challenged at all.

That is a notable symmetry for a World Series matchup. The challenge system exists as a potential lever — a way to claw back a borderline strike call in a critical at-bat — and both of these teams have largely left it sitting on the bench.

Where the club stands

Tampa Bay enters the World Series at 98-64 (.605), having won the AL East and the American League pennant. The Rays are coming off an ALCS in which they overcame a 2-1 series deficit to advance, a run that included ALCS MVP honors for Freddy Peralta, who had come over from the Mets at the trade deadline. The club arrives in Milwaukee on a one-game losing streak — a notation that, in the context of a seven-game series, is mostly a scheduling artifact.

The series structure, per Wright: two games in Milwaukee, a travel day Sunday, then up to three games in Tampa Bay from Monday through Wednesday, with Games 6 and 7, if necessary, back in Milwaukee the following Friday and Saturday.

Will ABS play a factor?

Probably not in the way the system's designers hoped, at least based on how these two clubs have used it. Rays manager Kevin Cash addressed the challenge system directly, saying his club would remind hitters to save challenges for the catcher in late-game situations. Per Wright, Cash described the ideal challenge moment as one that is run-scoring and game-changing, and said the reminders would kick in once Tampa Bay held a lead after the sixth or seventh inning.

That framing — treat the challenge as a resource to be rationed rather than a reflex — is a reasonable adaptation for a team that has not found much value in the system. Whether Milwaukee's approach mirrors it will become clearer once the rosters are submitted and the series begins.

What we don't know yet

World Series rosters had not been finalized as of Wright's report, with the submission deadline described as imminent. The name drawing the most attention on Milwaukee's side is right-hander Brandon Woodruff, who has been working his way back from a shoulder injury. Per Wright, Woodruff's inclusion is uncertain, and the Brewers face a specific complication: because his initial injury did not occur during the postseason, the club reportedly could not replace him on the roster if he were to re-injure himself.

Wright notes that Woodruff might be more useful as a late-inning bullpen option than either Kyle Harrison or Chad Patrick, neither of whom has pitched yet this postseason. That is a reasonable framing of the tradeoff — a healthy Woodruff in relief is a meaningful weapon, but the downside scenario carries real roster consequences.

The Game 1 starter question is now answered. The roster question is not.

What to watch

The most immediate thing to monitor is the World Series roster submissions, which were expected within hours of Wright's report. Woodruff's presence or absence will shape how Milwaukee constructs its bullpen for the series, and that construction matters against a Rays lineup that has shown it can grind through a rotation.

Beyond the rosters, the ABS usage pattern is worth tracking across the series. Both clubs underperformed the league in challenge value during the regular season, and Cash's comments suggest Tampa Bay has a deliberate late-game strategy around it. If a challenge decides a pivotal at-bat in Games 1 or 2, it will be the kind of detail that gets replayed for a while. If neither team uses the system effectively across seven games, it will be a footnote that confirms what the regular-season numbers already suggested.

Martinez takes the mound tonight. The series is underway.