Pablo Lopez on track for Spring Training return after internal brace procedure

Pablo Lopez is on track in his recovery from a February elbow procedure, and the Twins right-hander is targeting a return to action in Spring Training — with a spot on the Opening Day roster described as a possibility, per Charlie Wright of MLB Trade Rumors.

What happened

Lopez underwent what Wright describes as an internal brace procedure in February, a distinction that carries meaningful weight: it is not a full Tommy John reconstruction, and it comes with a shorter recovery timeline. A 12-month rehab process, per the report, would put Lopez back in a Twins uniform for spring action.

He returned to playing catch in August, and his own framing of the road ahead was characteristically direct. Lopez told Bobby Nightengale of the Minnesota Star Tribune that, speaking chronologically, he expects to head straight into spring training — straight into the fire, as he put it.

The procedure was Lopez's second elbow surgery of this variety. His first came in 2013, when he was a minor leaguer in Seattle's system. That one followed a more standard recovery arc: the surgery arrived at the end of the 2013 campaign and wiped out his entire 2014 season. This time, the internal brace approach and its shorter timeline are what make an Opening Day return plausible rather than aspirational.

Lopez also acknowledged that this recovery presents challenges his first one did not. He told the Star Tribune that he will need to listen to his body and monitor things he did not have to contend with after his first Tommy John — because that time, he finished rehab and had a normal offseason with rest and recovery. That buffer does not exist in the same way now.

Why it matters

The Lopez injury landed in the middle of what Wright characterizes as a tumultuous winter for the organization. New minority owners were introduced in December. Tom Pohlad took over as the team's control person. Derek Falvey's departure from the team president role followed in January. The Lopez procedure came next, trailed shortly by a Joe Ryan scare that ultimately turned out to be lower back inflammation.

That is a considerable amount of organizational turbulence to absorb before a single pitch is thrown, and the rotation absorbed most of the on-field consequences. Per the report, the Twins staff ranked 22nd in ERA in 2026 — a number that reflects a group that delivered mixed results across the board.

Getting Lopez back into the rotation is, by any reasonable reading of that context, the most stabilizing thing that could happen to Minnesota's pitching plans heading into 2027. He is not a depth piece or a reclamation project; he is the kind of arm that changes what a staff can ask of everyone else behind him.

The Twins also named Brian Reith as their new pitching coach earlier this month. Lopez returning to full health would give Reith a meaningful piece to work with from the first day of camp — which, given the 22nd-place ERA finish, is not a small thing.

The numbers

Minnesota finished 2026 at 77-85 (.475), third in the AL Central and 8 games back in the division. The club was eliminated from both the division race and the Wild Card race, finishing 7.0 games relative to the Wild Card cut line and ranking 7th in that chase.

Within the rotation, the picture was uneven. Ryan had another strong campaign, per the report, and Taj Bradley emerged as a mid-rotation option. Bailey Ober, Zebby Matthews, and Connor Prielipp struggled to deliver consistent results. Mick Abel showed promise before an elbow issue ended his season, per Wright.

The one late-season bright spot in the rotation came from an outside addition. Dean Kremer, brought in near the trade deadline, posted a 3.48 ERA and a sub-1.00 WHIP after Minnesota adjusted his pitch mix, per the report. The former Oriole is reportedly ticketed for a rotation spot in 2027.

Where the club stands

A 77-85 record and a third-place finish in the AL Central is not the position from which a franchise typically enters an offseason with momentum. The Twins are rebuilding their front-office structure, installing new ownership leadership, and now waiting on their most important starting pitcher to clear a medical timeline.

The rotation math is straightforward: if Lopez is ready, he slots in alongside Ryan, Kremer, and Bradley, and the group looks meaningfully different than it did in 2026. If he is not ready for Opening Day, the report identifies Matthews, Abel — contingent on his own health — and Kendry Rojas as candidates who could fill that spot.

The offseason has already carried its share of transitions beyond the pitching staff. Catcher Mitch Garver, who spent part of his career with the Twins, retired after parts of ten MLB seasons. The roster is being reshaped from multiple directions at once.

What we don't know yet

The internal brace procedure's shorter timeline makes an Opening Day return a possibility, per the report — but it remains exactly that: a possibility, not a certainty. Lopez himself framed spring training as the destination, not a guaranteed starting point.

His second elbow surgery also introduces a layer of monitoring that his first did not require. As Lopez noted to the Star Tribune, he will be navigating a recovery that does not end cleanly with a normal offseason rest period. How his body responds to that compressed timeline is the central unknown heading into camp.

Abel's availability is similarly unresolved. The report notes his season ended due to an elbow issue, but no timetable or diagnosis is attached to that detail. Whether he factors into the 2027 rotation — and in what capacity — remains open.

What to watch

The most direct question the Twins face this offseason is whether Lopez arrives in Spring Training healthy enough to compete for a rotation spot from the first day of camp. His own words suggest that is the plan; the medical reality will determine whether the plan holds.

Beyond Lopez, the rotation's shape depends on how the organization handles the depth behind the established names. Kremer's reported fit for a 2027 spot gives the group a floor. What happens with Matthews, Prielipp, Ober, Abel, and Rojas will determine whether that floor is a foundation or a ceiling.

New pitching coach Brian Reith will be working with a staff that ranked 22nd in ERA last season and is now waiting on its most important arm to complete a recovery. That is not an easy first assignment — but Lopez returning healthy would change the conversation considerably.