Paul Skenes' ERA climbs to 3.90 as velocity concern emerges for Pirates ace

What happened

Paul Skenes lasted four innings Friday night against the Cincinnati Reds, surrendering seven hits — including two home runs — and five runs. Pittsburgh lost 8-7, though Skenes did not take the loss. Postgame, per Yahoo Sports, Skenes described the outing plainly: it took roughly an inning to find his delivery, which he acknowledged can happen, but added that it usually does not look that bad in the first inning. His overall assessment of the night was "just pretty sloppy all around."

The start was the second consecutive rough one for the Pittsburgh Pirates ace. In his previous outing against the Chicago Cubs, Skenes struck out 11 batters but still surrendered five runs across 5.1 innings — a combination that would look fine on most pitchers' résumés and yet represents a notable departure from the standard Skenes set over the previous two seasons.

Beyond the results, Yahoo Sports reports a more specific concern: Skenes has failed to top 98 mph in five of his last six starts, a velocity drop that is described as notable. The report characterizes the development as raising concern about arm fatigue or an undisclosed issue, though no diagnosis, timetable, or official club statement has been attached to that concern. It is a data point, not a declaration.

Why it matters

Context makes the current stretch land harder. Skenes entered the 2026 season carrying the weight of genuine expectation — he was the top pick of the 2023 MLB Draft, won the NL Rookie of the Year Award in 2024, and followed that by claiming the NL Cy Young Award in 2025 with a 1.97 ERA. That is not a pitcher who is supposed to be the subject of a velocity-concern article in August.

The 2026 season has not been a straight line downward. After a disastrous Opening Day in which he gave up five runs without escaping the first inning, Skenes steadied himself. Per Yahoo Sports, he got his ERA back below 2 by May 12 and kept it at 3 or below until May 26, when it reached 3.10. The climb from there to 3.90 — where it sits now — has been more recent and more abrupt, driven by the back-to-back rough outings.

The velocity question is what separates this from a routine rough patch. Pitchers have bad stretches. Pitchers do not routinely lose meaningful velocity for five of six starts without it becoming a topic of serious organizational attention. Whether the Pirates have that concern internally, and what they may or may not be doing about it, is not addressed in the report.

The numbers

Skenes' ERA currently sits at 3.90, per Yahoo Sports. For reference, his 2025 Cy Young campaign produced a 1.97 ERA — meaning the gap between where he was and where he is now is nearly two full runs per nine innings. That is not a rounding error.

The velocity threshold in question is 98 mph. Per Yahoo Sports, Skenes has failed to clear that mark in five of his last six starts. The report does not specify what his velocity readings have been in those starts, only that 98 mph — a number that would be a ceiling for most pitchers and a floor for Skenes at his best — has not been reached.

The Pittsburgh Pirates enter Saturday at 82-80 (.506), sitting third in the NL Central, 21 games back in the division, and ranked fifth in the Wild Card picture at 6.0 games relative to the cut line. Per the verified standings, the club has been eliminated from both the division race and the Wild Card race. The Pirates are playing out the string, which means every Skenes start carries less postseason urgency and more diagnostic weight.

Where the club stands

Pittsburgh is 82-80 and playing the final weeks of a season that will not end in October baseball. The Pirates enter Saturday on a one-game winning streak — the kind of detail that feels almost beside the point when the larger conversation is about what is happening with their franchise pitcher.

The remainder of this series against Cincinnati continues Saturday with Braxton Ashcraft scheduled against Andrew Abbott at Great American Ball Park, and Sunday with Mitch Keller opposing Chase Burns. The club then travels to Milwaukee on Monday, where Bubba Chandler is listed as the probable starter against Brandon Sproat at American Family Field.

Skenes is not listed among those probable starters, which means his next appearance — whenever it comes — will be another data point in what is becoming a closely watched stretch.

What we don't know yet

The velocity drop is documented; the cause is not. Yahoo Sports frames it as raising concern about arm fatigue or an undisclosed issue, and that framing is doing real work. "Arm fatigue" and "undisclosed issue" are not the same thing, and neither has been attributed to the Pirates organization, a team physician, or Skenes himself.

Skenes' postgame comments, per Yahoo Sports, addressed the mechanical feel of the outing — finding his delivery, the overall sloppiness of the execution — but did not reference velocity, physical discomfort, or any health-related concern. That absence is not itself meaningful; pitchers do not typically volunteer injury information postgame. But it means the velocity data and the concern it raises are coming from observation, not from the subject of the story.

Whether the Pirates have placed Skenes on any kind of internal watch, adjusted his workload, or had conversations about his physical status is not reported. Under general league rules, a pitcher would need to be placed on the 15-day injured list to be officially removed from the rotation, and no such move has been reported here.

What to watch

The velocity readings in Skenes' next start are the most immediate thing to monitor. Five of six starts below 98 mph is a trend; the next outing will either extend it or interrupt it, and the direction matters enormously for how this story develops.

Equally worth watching is whether the Pirates say anything publicly. Organizations are not required to disclose information about a player's physical status until a roster move is made, but clubs sometimes get ahead of a story when the alternative is a week of escalating speculation. So far, per Yahoo Sports, there has been no such statement.

The broader question — whether a pitcher who won a Cy Young Award with a 1.97 ERA is experiencing something that requires medical attention, or whether this is a prolonged rough stretch that resolves on its own — remains genuinely open. Yahoo Sports raises the concern with appropriate uncertainty. The velocity readings in his next start will tell us something. Whether they will tell us enough is a separate matter entirely.