Shohei Ohtani's two-way status headlines Dodgers offseason outlook

The Los Angeles Dodgers finished the 2026 season at 100-62, first in the NL West, and still came up short of a three-peat. Now the offseason question isn't whether the roster is good — it plainly is — but whether the pitching staff that surrounds $1.52 billion in total future commitments can be rebuilt quickly enough to make another run in 2027.

What happened

Darragh McDonald's offseason outlook for the Dodgers at MLB Trade Rumors lays out a franchise carrying enormous financial commitments, a two-way superstar whose second half was defined by injury, and a pitching staff whose most important depth pieces are now free agents.

Shohei Ohtani's last appearance on the mound in 2026 was July 3, per the report. He continued hitting through the second half of the season, but his offensive production was described as well below his usual level. The area of greatest uncertainty for the club, McDonald writes, is the pitching staff — and Ohtani's two-way status sits at the center of that uncertainty.

Separately, the free-agent list attached to this roster is substantial. Tarik Skubal, Blake Treinen, Evan Phillips, Alex Vesia, Kris Bubic, Eric Lauer, and Brusdar Graterol are all entering free agency, along with Enrique Hernández. Miguel Rojas has retired. That is a significant portion of what was the club's pitching depth, departing all at once.

Why it matters

The Dodgers' guaranteed contract ledger reads like a monument to organizational ambition: Shohei Ohtani at $490MM through 2033, Yoshinobu Yamamoto at $248MM through 2035, Mookie Betts at $205MM through 2032, Kyle Tucker at $185MM through 2029, and Blake Snell at $78MM through 2029, among others. The 2027 financial commitment alone stands at $362.25MM, with $142.2MM of that deferred. Total future commitments reach $1.52 billion.

That kind of payroll architecture gives the Dodgers a formidable foundation. It also means the margins matter: when the depth layer of a pitching staff walks out the door in October, the club has to rebuild it, and the names available to do so are, in several cases, the same names who just left.

Ohtani's health is the variable that could reshape the rotation picture most dramatically. Per multiple reports, surgery on his knee or biceps is not expected to be necessary, and he is targeting a full two-way return for 2027 Spring Training — a development Dodgers president Andrew Friedman addressed publicly. But the exact timeline and the scope of his two-way role remain uncertain, per those same reports. A healthy, pitching Ohtani changes the calculus of what the rotation needs from outside additions. An Ohtani who returns only as a designated hitter changes it differently.

The numbers

The Dodgers' season line — 100-62, a .617 winning percentage — reflects a club that won the NL West and finished on a three-game winning streak. That record was built with a pitching staff that now looks considerably different on paper than it will when spring camps open.

On the financial side, the arbitration projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz give a sense of what the internal roster costs heading into the offseason: Andy Pages is projected at $4.9MM, Emmet Sheehan at $2.1MM, Alex Call at $1.9MM, Brock Stewart at $1.8MM, Gavin Stone at $1.2MM, and Jake Cousins at $1MM. McDonald identifies Cousins, Call, and Stone as non-tender candidates — meaning the club may choose not to offer them contracts, letting them reach free agency rather than carry their arbitration salaries.

Where the club stands

Los Angeles finished 100-62, leading the NL West. The roster's guaranteed-contract core is intact and expensive: Will Smith at $70.45MM through 2033, Tyler Glasnow at $51.5625MM through 2028, Edwin Díaz at $46MM through 2028, Tanner Scott at $40MM through 2028, Tommy Edman at $39.75MM through 2029, Freddie Freeman at $27MM through 2027, Teoscar Hernández at $21MM through 2027, Max Muncy at $13.75MM through 2027, and Hyeseong Kim at $5.25MM through 2027 are all under contract.

Yamamoto's deal includes conditional opt-outs after 2029 and 2031. Tucker's last two years are player options. Glasnow's final year is a club/player option. Several other deals carry conditional club options in future years. The structure of the roster has flexibility built in — but the near-term commitments are largely fixed.

Friedman said publicly that the club's offseason spending approach remains what he called "business as usual," per a report from earlier this week, despite financial scrutiny surrounding chairman Mark Walter. That framing suggests the Dodgers do not expect their competitive posture to change heading into the offseason market.

What we don't know yet

### Is Ohtani pitching in 2027?

Surgery is not expected to be necessary, and he is targeting a return to two-way play, per Dodgers president Andrew Friedman. But the exact timeline and the precise scope of his role remain unresolved, per multiple reports. There is a meaningful difference between "Ohtani is available to pitch in April" and "Ohtani's two-way return is being managed carefully through the first half" — and that distinction has not been settled publicly.

The free-agent decisions are similarly open. Skubal, Treinen, Phillips, Vesia, Bubic, Lauer, and Graterol are all on the market. Whether the Dodgers pursue any of them in re-signing conversations, or look elsewhere to rebuild the pitching depth, is not addressed in McDonald's report.

The non-tender question around Cousins, Call, and Stone is also unresolved. McDonald flags them as candidates, but no decisions have been reported.

Dalton Rushing, the Dodgers' catcher, underwent surgery to repair a partially torn UCL in his right elbow, per reports from earlier this week — adding another health variable to an offseason that already has plenty of them.

What to watch

The Ohtani two-way timeline is the story that will define how aggressively the Dodgers need to address the rotation. If he is fully available as a pitcher from the start of 2027, the club's rotation picture looks meaningfully different than if his return is managed cautiously or limited in scope.

Beyond Ohtani, the free-agent pitching market will tell a great deal about the Dodgers' offseason direction. Several of the names departing — Treinen, Phillips, Vesia — were central to how the bullpen functioned. Rebuilding that group, whether through re-signings or new additions, is the most immediate operational task the front office faces.

The non-tender deadline will clarify the arbitration picture. And Yamamoto, operating under a $248MM commitment that includes conditional opt-outs after 2029 and 2031, will be worth watching as the club calibrates what it needs around him.

One hundred wins is a high floor. The ceiling in 2027 depends on answers that, as of now, remain genuinely open.