Tarik Skubal's future with the Dodgers is the biggest question of their offseason

What happened

The Los Angeles Dodgers' offseason began earlier than anyone in the organization anticipated. Per Connor Byrne of MLB Trade Rumors, the Brewers swept the Dodgers in four games in the NLCS, outscoring them 21-11 and ending Los Angeles's bid to become the first National League team to win three consecutive World Series titles. Now the Dodgers face an immediate and consequential question: what happens with Tarik Skubal?

Per the report, Skubal is unsigned beyond this season, is represented by Scott Boras, and is expected to pursue the largest contract ever awarded to a pitcher. The Dodgers acquired him from the Tigers ahead of the Aug. 3 trade deadline, parting with three prospects for the back-to-back American League Cy Young winner. Whether they re-sign him is now the defining question of their offseason.

Why it matters

The Dodgers entered the postseason as two-time defending World Series champions and finished the regular season with 100 wins, claiming the NL West for the fifth straight year and earning a first-round bye. They were, by most measures, the most formidable team in baseball. The Brewers, per Byrne's report, entered the postseason off a major-league-best 103-win campaign, and 59% of MLB Trade Rumors readers had picked Milwaukee to advance in a pre-series poll — so the outcome was not entirely without precedent. What surprised observers, per the report, was that a Dodgers rotation featuring Skubal, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, and Tyler Glasnow didn't generate more resistance across four games.

The Skubal acquisition was, by design, a move to make the Dodgers "borderline unbeatable in the playoffs," per Byrne. That framing now sits alongside a four-game sweep, which is the kind of juxtaposition that tends to define an offseason's tone. The question of whether to re-sign Skubal isn't just about one pitcher — it's about whether the Dodgers' construction philosophy, which has leaned heavily on enormous commitments to elite talent, produced the right result and whether they double down on it.

The contract benchmark in play is significant. Per the report, the richest deal ever given to a pitcher currently belongs to Yamamoto, who came to the Dodgers from Japan on a 12-year, $325MM contract in December 2023. Skubal, described by Byrne as a soon-to-be 30-year-old, is expected to seek a deal that surpasses that figure. The Dodgers, per the report, "haven't shown much hesitance to dole out enormous contracts in recent years."

The numbers

Skubal's performance in his time with Los Angeles gave the organization little reason to hesitate on the baseball merits. Per MLB Trade Rumors, he made 10 regular-season starts as a Dodger and posted a 2.61 ERA with 70 strikeouts and 13 walks across 62 innings. The strikeout-to-walk ratio embedded in those numbers — more than five punchouts for every free pass — reflects the kind of command profile that tends to hold up in October.

In the postseason, per the report, Skubal made two appearances: a Game 1 win over the Braves in the NLDS and a Game 1 loss to the Brewers in the NLCS. Across that 11-inning span, he recorded a 2.45 ERA with 14 strikeouts and 4 walks. The Dodgers dispatched the Braves in the NLDS with Skubal contributing; the NLCS loss in Game 1 was followed by three more defeats, none of which involved Skubal on the mound.

The Dodgers finished the regular season 100-62 (.617), first in the NL West.

Where the club stands

Los Angeles finished 100-62 (.617), first in the NL West. The postseason is over. The offseason is open.

The organizational backdrop adds texture to the Skubal decision. A week removed from the NLCS, the Dodgers are also navigating Shohei Ohtani's health situation — Ohtani described 2026 as an injury-plagued season and flagged significant health issues, per earlier Posterior Wire reporting. Ohtani has said he definitely plans to pitch in 2027, per that same reporting, but the Dodgers are heading into an offseason with questions about their two most prominent players simultaneously. Miguel Rojas, per Posterior Wire reporting, officially retired after 13 MLB seasons and is set to transition into a player development role with the club, adding one more offseason item to the ledger.

The Dodgers' payroll context matters here. Per Byrne's report, the Brewers' cash payroll is almost $200MM lower than the Dodgers'. Milwaukee won the series anyway, which will not simplify the internal conversation about whether to commit record money to a single pitcher — but the Dodgers' recent history suggests they are unlikely to be deterred by the number alone.

What we don't know yet

Is Skubal staying in Los Angeles?

Per the report, Skubal was unwilling to discuss his long-term outlook when asked on Thursday night, with MLB Trade Rumors crediting Sonja Chen for the attribution on that exchange. What is clear, per Byrne, is that the Dodgers' president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman executed the trade two and a half months ago with the expectation of a deep postseason run — and that the offseason is now "underway much earlier than they expected."

Whether the Dodgers make a formal offer, what Skubal's market looks like across the rest of baseball, and whether a Boras negotiation produces a deal before spring training are all open questions. The report frames the re-signing as the Dodgers' "biggest question" this offseason, but stops well short of suggesting a deal is imminent or likely.

What to watch

The Skubal negotiation will be the thread to follow throughout the winter. As a Scott Boras client expected to seek a record-setting contract, the process is unlikely to resolve quickly — Boras negotiations have historically extended deep into the offseason and, in some cases, into spring training. The Yamamoto deal, at 12 years and $325MM, is the stated benchmark per the report, and any offer that surpasses it would represent a new frontier for pitcher contracts league-wide.

Beyond Skubal, the Dodgers will be managing Ohtani's health trajectory heading into 2027, per earlier Posterior Wire reporting, alongside the broader roster decisions that follow any postseason exit. The rotation question — whether Skubal, Yamamoto, Snell, and Glasnow remain intact — will shape how the Dodgers are constructed for a potential fourth consecutive World Series run. For now, the desk waits, the market forms, and Skubal, for his part, isn't saying anything yet.