Braves rank 25th in MLB in August run scoring, and the underlying numbers agree

The Atlanta Braves are scoring at a 25th-place rate in August, and the underlying numbers are not offering much in the way of comfort. Per Mark Bowman on X, Atlanta is generating 3.67 runs per game this month, ranking 25th among MLB teams. Their Weighted On-Base Average sits at .298 — 23rd in the league — and their expected Weighted On-Base Average is .302, which ranks 22nd. The gap between those two figures is narrow enough that Bowman's conclusion holds: this is not primarily a story about bad luck. The Braves are, by multiple measures, a genuinely below-average offensive club in August.

That is a strange sentence to type about a team sitting at 84-58 (.592), first in the NL East, with a division magic number of 17. And yet here we are.

What happened

Bowman broke down the August offensive picture player by player, using wOBA and xwOBA as a paired lens — wOBA capturing what a hitter has actually produced, xwOBA estimating what the quality of his contact would predict. The spread between those two numbers tells you something about fortune, good or bad.

Among Atlanta's regulars, Bowman identifies three players performing in the top third of the 244-player sample he examined. Yaz carries a .367 wOBA this month. Olson is at .355. Riley is at .346. All three rank in the top third by wOBA, which Bowman notes creates value for how a hitter gets on base, with a home run weighted above a triple, a triple above a double, and so on down the line.

The picture gets more complicated from there.

Why it matters

The wOBA-versus-xwOBA comparison is where the individual stories diverge. Michael Harris II has a .341 wOBA and a .280 xwOBA — a positive gap that, per Bowman, suggests he has had some good fortune this month based on the quality of his contact. Mauricio Dubón shows a similar pattern: .318 wOBA against a .283 xwOBA.

On the other side of the ledger, Drake Baldwin (.274 wOBA, .312 xwOBA) and Ronald Acuña Jr. (.294 wOBA, .321 xwOBA) have each seen their actual production trail what their contact quality would suggest — what Bowman characterizes as misfortune this month. For Acuña in particular, a .321 xwOBA indicates the underlying contact has been meaningfully better than the .294 wOBA output reflects.

Then there is a third category, and it is the most operationally concerning. Ozzie Albies (.266 wOBA, .262 xwOBA) and Dominic Smith (.259 wOBA, .223 xwOBA) have struggled, and their actual output has exceeded the expectations of their contact quality. There is no favorable regression waiting in the wings for either of them, at least not according to this month's contact data. What you see is, more or less, what you get.

Bowman's framing is precise on this point: the question of bad luck is not a blanket answer for the whole roster. Some players have been unlucky. Some have been lucky. Some have simply been unproductive in ways the contact data corroborates. The team-level metrics — wOBA .298, xwOBA .302 — reflect all of that together, and the result is a club that ranks in the bottom quarter of the league in August run production for reasons that are, in aggregate, genuine.

The numbers

The team-level figures Bowman cites: 3.67 runs per game (25th in MLB), wOBA .298 (23rd), xwOBA .302 (22nd).

Individual wOBA rankings among 244 players, per Bowman — top third: Yaz .367, Olson .355, Riley .346.

Players with wOBA exceeding xwOBA (positive fortune gap): Harris II (.341 wOBA / .280 xwOBA), Dubón (.318 / .283).

Players with xwOBA exceeding wOBA (negative fortune gap): Baldwin (.274 / .312), Acuña (.294 / .321).

Players whose output has exceeded contact-quality expectations despite struggles: Albies (.266 / .262), Smith (.259 / .223).

Where the club stands

Atlanta enters this stretch at 84-58 (.592), holding first place in the NL East with a division magic number of 17 and a one-game losing streak. The schedule does not ease the offensive conversation: the Braves are hosting the Los Angeles Dodgers for three games at Truist Park. Tuesday's probable matchup is Bryce Elder against Tyler Glasnow. Wednesday brings AJ Smith-Shawver against Roki Sasaki. Thursday closes the series with Chris Sale against Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

That is not a rotation you want to face while ranking 25th in run production. The Dodgers are not arriving at a moment when Atlanta's offense is humming.

Is this a September concern or an August blip?

The honest answer, per the data Bowman presents, is that it is not purely a blip. The team wOBA and xwOBA are close enough together that the run-scoring rate reflects something real about how Atlanta has hit this month, not a cluster of hard-hit balls finding gloves. At the same time, the individual breakdowns show meaningful variance: Acuña's xwOBA suggests his contact has been better than his results, and Baldwin's gap points the same direction. If those two players see their production normalize toward their contact quality, the team-level picture improves.

But Albies and Smith present a different problem. When a hitter's actual output is already exceeding what his contact quality predicts, there is no statistical tailwind to expect. Their August struggles, per Bowman's framing, are not the kind that tend to self-correct through luck alone.

What we don't know yet

Bowman's analysis covers August specifically, and the piece does not address whether any of these trends predate the month or how they compare to the players' full-season baselines. The report does not offer a projection for how the offense might perform going forward, and no club personnel have commented on the offensive struggles or any potential roster adjustments in response to them. Whether the Dodgers series will serve as a diagnostic moment or simply a difficult three games on the schedule remains, for now, an open question.

What to watch

The Acuña and Baldwin xwOBA gaps are the most actionable data points in Bowman's breakdown — both players have contact quality that has outpaced their results this month, which means their August lines may not fully represent what they have been doing at the plate. Whether that gap closes in the Dodgers series, against a pitching staff that includes Glasnow, Sasaki, and Yamamoto, will be worth tracking.

The Albies and Smith situations carry less optimism from a regression standpoint, per the numbers Bowman presents. And the team-level wOBA and xwOBA — sitting within four points of each other at .298 and .302 — will be the cleanest signal of whether August's offensive struggles are easing or deepening as the calendar moves toward September.

Atlanta's division lead is comfortable. The magic number is 17. But a club that ranks 25th in run production while hosting the Dodgers for three games is being asked to answer a real question, and the underlying metrics suggest the question is fair.