Casey Mize starts Sunday for Detroit Tigers as they try to avoid sweep at Cleveland

Casey Mize is back on a mound again — for the second time this season — and the Detroit Tigers are counting on him to keep a difficult weekend from getting worse.

Per Yahoo Sports, Mize is returning from his second stint on the injured list this season, this one stemming from inflammation of his right groin, and is scheduled to start Sunday afternoon against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field. Detroit enters the game having dropped the first two of the series, including a 3-1 loss on Saturday, and is looking to avoid a sweep at the hands of its American League Central rivals.

What happened

The Tigers dropped Saturday's game 3-1 despite collecting nine hits, per Yahoo Sports. The offense ran into familiar trouble with runners on base, going 1-for-5 with runners in scoring position and stranding six. Saturday's loss came in Tarik Skubal's own return from the injured list, which made the offensive quiet particularly costly.

Sunday brings a different returning arm. Mize, who Yahoo Sports notes is 29 years old, is expected to take the ball against Cleveland's Gavin Williams in what amounts to his first appearance since landing on the IL for the second time this season with the right groin issue.

Why it matters

The last time Mize returned from an IL stint this season, the results were difficult to argue with. Per Yahoo Sports, he posted a 1.08 ERA and a 1.61 FIP across three starts and 16 1/3 innings in that stretch, allowing eight hits and a walk while striking out 14. That kind of production from a starting pitcher who has spent time on the injured list twice in the same season is the sort of thing that makes a pitching staff feel considerably less precarious — at least for a few weeks.

The question, as it always is with a second return from the same general area of the body, is how quickly that version of Mize reappears. Yahoo Sports carries some uncertainty around his status, which is worth keeping in mind as Sunday's lineup card gets filled out.

There is also a layer of history here. Per Yahoo Sports, the last time Mize faced Cleveland was in the AL Wild Card Game last September — a high-leverage moment that gives this matchup a bit more texture than a standard mid-June start might otherwise carry.

The numbers

The Tigers carry a 76-86 record into Sunday, good for fourth place in the AL Central, nine games back of the division lead. Their Wild Card standing sits at rank 8, 8.0 games relative to the cut line. The team enters Sunday's game on a one-game losing streak — though given the weekend's shape, that streak is at risk of extending before the afternoon is out.

As for Mize's numbers from his productive stretch earlier this season: the 1.08 ERA and 1.61 FIP across 16 1/3 innings, per Yahoo Sports, represent the baseline the Tigers are hoping to see again. Eight hits and a walk allowed, 14 strikeouts — those are the figures that made his first return look like a genuine rotation stabilizer. The second return now asks whether that version of him travels.

Where the club stands

Detroit is eliminated from both the division race and the Wild Card race. At 76-86 and sitting fourth in the AL Central, the Tigers are playing out the schedule rather than chasing anything in the standings. That context does not diminish what happens on the field — a sweep avoided is still a sweep avoided, and a healthy Mize finishing a start cleanly would carry real value heading into the weeks ahead — but it does reframe what Sunday means in the larger picture.

After the Cleveland series concludes, Detroit travels to Houston for back-to-back games at Daikin Park on Monday and Tuesday. Drew Anderson is the probable starter Monday against Kai-Wei Teng, with Tuesday's game listing Framber Valdez against Hunter Brown. The Astros series will arrive quickly, which makes Sunday's outcome — and Mize's workload — worth watching with some attention.

Is Mize's return considered certain?

Not entirely. Yahoo Sports reports his return from the second IL stint with language that preserves some uncertainty. He is scheduled to start, and the expectation per Yahoo Sports is that he takes the mound Sunday, but the nature of a second IL stint in the same season means the desk is not treating this as a done deal until the first pitch is thrown.

What we don't know yet

The full picture of Mize's health and how many innings he might be stretched to on Sunday remains unaddressed in the available reporting. Whether the right groin inflammation has fully resolved or whether the Tigers will manage his workload conservatively is not specified. Given that this is his second trip to the IL this season with the same issue, how the club handles his pitch count in the early innings — and what the bullpen looks like behind him — will be worth monitoring in real time.

It is also worth noting that Saturday's loss came despite nine hits, which suggests the Tigers' issues with runners in scoring position are not purely a talent problem. Whether that tendency carries into Sunday is an open question that no amount of pregame reporting can answer.

What to watch

The obvious thread to follow is how Mize looks in his first few innings. His numbers from the stretch between his first and second IL stints this season — that 1.08 ERA, the 1.61 FIP, the 14 strikeouts across 16 1/3 innings, per Yahoo Sports — set a high bar, and the Tigers will need something close to that version of him if they want to avoid dropping all three games in Cleveland.

Beyond Mize, the offense's performance with runners in scoring position is the subplot that has defined this series. Going 1-for-5 in that situation on Saturday, per Yahoo Sports, is the kind of number that tends to follow a team into the next day's coverage. If Detroit's lineup can convert even one or two of those opportunities on Sunday, the game looks very different.

The road trip continues into Houston regardless of Sunday's result, so the Tigers are not playing for anything in the standings. But a rotation piece returning healthy and effective for the second time in a season is worth tracking on its own terms — especially when that pitcher's last big-league appearance before this IL stint came in a postseason game against the same opponent he is about to face again.