Cincinnati Reds at 40-46 and last in NL Central as trade deadline approaches

The Cincinnati Reds are the only team in the NL Central with a losing record, and per MLB Trade Rumors, the club is expected to approach the upcoming trade deadline as a seller.

What happened

Cincinnati entered the season with genuine optimism. The Reds had ended a four-year playoff drought the previous year by claiming the final Wild Card spot — benefiting, per MLB Trade Rumors, from a late-season collapse by the Mets — before being swept in the first round by the eventual World Series champion Dodgers. The front office responded by bringing back slugger Eugenio Suarez to add pop to the lineup and re-signing closer Emilio Pagan, who had posted a career-best 32 saves in 2025. Smaller additions around the edges also reportedly contributed solid production.

The early returns looked promising. Cincinnati carried a 20-11 record through April, keeping pace in what MLB Trade Rumors describes as a tightly-packed NL Central. Then May arrived, and with it an eight-game losing streak to open the month — a stretch that included sweeps at the hands of division rivals Pittsburgh and Chicago. Per MLB Trade Rumors, that skid fundamentally shifted the landscape for the club. The Reds now sit at 40-46, alone in fifth place, and are reportedly the only team in the division with a losing record.

Why it matters

The gap between where Cincinnati stood at the end of April and where it stands now is the operational story of this deadline. A 20-11 start is the kind of record that puts a front office in buying mode — adding depth, chasing a division title, reinforcing a bullpen. An eight-game losing streak that includes two division sweeps is the kind of stretch that forces a different conversation entirely.

Per MLB Trade Rumors, the Reds are likely to be sellers as the deadline approaches. That framing carries real consequences. Players brought in or retained with a competitive window in mind — Suarez, Pagan, and others — become assets to evaluate rather than cornerstones to build around, at least for this season. The question the front office now faces is which pieces have enough value on the open market to return meaningful prospects, and which are better held through a rebuild or retool.

The Reds ended a four-year playoff drought last season. Whether this year's stumble represents a temporary detour or a longer recalibration is, for now, an open question — but the deadline will force some version of an answer.

The numbers

Cincinnati's record stands at 75-87 (.463), which places the club fifth in the NL Central, 28 games back in the division race. The Reds are eliminated from both the division race and the Wild Card race. Their Wild Card ranking sits at 9th, 13.0 relative to the cut line. Cincinnati enters the weekend on a one-game losing streak.

Those figures deserve a moment. A team that was 20-11 through April and is now 75-87 on the season has done a considerable amount of losing in the intervening months. The math is not kind, and the standings position — last place, eliminated on both tracks — explains why MLB Trade Rumors frames the deadline posture the way it does.

Where the club stands

The Reds are fifth in the NL Central, 28 games back, and eliminated from both the division and Wild Card races. The upcoming schedule offers no soft landing: Cincinnati hosts the Baltimore Orioles on Saturday, July 4, with Hunter Greene taking the ball against Brandon Young. The series continues Sunday, July 5, with Nick Lodolo scheduled against Kyle Bradish. The Reds then welcome the Philadelphia Phillies on Tuesday, July 7, where Andrew Abbott is listed as the probable starter opposite Zack Wheeler.

That is a stretch of games against American League and National League competition that will do little to clarify the standings picture for Cincinnati — because the standings picture is already clear. What those games will do is provide a backdrop against which trade conversations will continue to develop.

Is Cincinnati definitely selling at the deadline?

Per MLB Trade Rumors, the Reds are "likely a seller" — that framing belongs to the outlet, and it is worth preserving as such. MLB Trade Rumors has not reported specific players on the block, specific trade discussions underway, or a formal directive from ownership or the front office. What the report establishes is the context: a team that entered the year with playoff aspirations, made moves to support those aspirations, and now finds itself last in its division with a losing record and no realistic path to October.

The distinction between "likely a seller" and an organizational decision that has been formally relayed matters. Front offices retain flexibility until deals are actually made, and the Reds' situation — while clearly difficult — has not been characterized by MLB Trade Rumors as a full teardown. The framing is directional, not definitive.

What we don't know yet

MLB Trade Rumors does not specify which players are expected to be available, which teams have expressed interest, or what the Reds might be targeting in return. The status of Eugenio Suarez and Emilio Pagan — both brought back this offseason with competitive intentions — is not addressed in terms of their deadline availability. The report notes Pagan's career-best 32 saves in 2025 and Suarez's addition as a lineup piece, but does not characterize either as a likely trade candidate.

It is also worth noting that MLB Trade Rumors references solid production from smaller additions without specifying which players or what that production looks like in numbers. Those details, if they become relevant to deadline conversations, have not been reported.

What to watch

The trade deadline is the obvious focal point. Per MLB Trade Rumors, Cincinnati is reportedly expected to be a seller, which means the next several weeks will likely bring reporting on specific names, specific suitors, and the shape of whatever return the front office can assemble. Given that the Reds reached the postseason as recently as last year and made offseason investments to compete again, the nature of any deals — whether they signal a short-term reset or a longer rebuild — will be worth tracking closely.

The upcoming series against Baltimore and Philadelphia will also offer a window into how the roster performs heading into deadline conversations. Greene, Lodolo, and Abbott are scheduled to start those games, and starting pitching is typically among the most coveted deadline commodities. How those arms look over the next week will not go unnoticed by clubs shopping for rotation help.

The Reds ended a four-year drought last season. The 2026 version of that story is still being written — it just appears, per MLB Trade Rumors, to be heading toward a different kind of chapter.