Max Williams and Aiva Arquette surface in Eric Longenhagen's prospect chat

Two prospect names surfaced in Eric Longenhagen's FanGraphs chat on September 25 — one a Marlins outfielder whose bat metrics took a significant step forward in a shortened season, the other a Rockies infielder whose late-season campaign ended abruptly and whose fall schedule is now uncertain.

What happened

Longenhagen fielded a question about Miami Marlins outfield prospect Max Williams, a 22-year-old left-handed hitter out of Florida State whom Longenhagen described as "really physical" with big lefty pop. Per Longenhagen, Williams missed most of the season with a shoulder injury before raking in a limited late-season sample. The metrics, Longenhagen noted, look way different than they did the prior year — a 51% hard-hit rate and a 114 max exit velocity among the figures he cited.

Separately, a reader flagged that Rockies prospect Aiva Arquette had been placed on the injured list with two days remaining in the season at that level. Longenhagen said he had not seen the news and indicated he would attempt to run down what happened and what it means for Arquette's Arizona Fall League prognosis during the chat.

Why it matters

For Williams, the question is whether a limited sample in A-ball is enough to move the needle on a prospect ranking. Longenhagen acknowledged the tension directly: he noted that a colleague had slid Williams off the main section of the Marlins list based on prior-year data, and that the more recent numbers present a meaningfully different picture. The caveat is real — a 70% contact rate, even at that level, is, as Longenhagen put it, "scary." Plus power grades and a hard-hit rate that clears half the batted-ball sample are the kind of profile that generates offseason conversation, but the contact question is the one that will follow Williams into next spring.

The shoulder injury that cost him most of the season adds another layer. A prospect who missed significant time, then posted eye-catching exit velocity numbers in a small window, is exactly the kind of player whose ranking involves genuine disagreement among evaluators. Longenhagen's read, per the chat, is that Williams is "def a prospect, still probably a lower-ranked one" — a measured landing spot that preserves the upside without overselling the sample.

For Arquette, the timing is what makes the IL placement notable. Two days left in a season is not a moment when a club typically shuts a player down unless something has come up. The Arizona Fall League is the next meaningful evaluation window for prospects at that level, and Longenhagen flagged the uncertainty around whether Arquette would be available for it. No diagnosis or timetable was reported in the chat.

The numbers

Longenhagen cited a 51% hard-hit rate and a 114 max exit velocity for Williams in his limited sample, both of which he described as meaningfully improved over the prior year. The contact rate came in at 70%, a figure Longenhagen flagged as a concern even accounting for the level of competition — Williams spent most of his time in A-ball this season. The combination of plus power grades and that hard-hit rate is what prompted the "helium guy" framing from the reader who asked the question; Longenhagen's answer was essentially: yes, but carefully.

No statistical line was reported for Arquette in the chat.

Where the club stands

The Miami Marlins enter Sunday at 79-82 (.491), sitting third in the NL East, 15 games back in the division, and eliminated from both the division race and the Wild Card race — ranked sixth in the Wild Card standings, 8.0 relative to the cut line. They carry a one-game losing streak into a home matchup against the Atlanta Braves on September 27 at loanDepot park, with Janson Junk projected to start opposite JR Ritchie.

The season's final days are, in other words, the kind of stretch where the conversation naturally shifts toward what comes next — which is precisely the context in which a prospect chat about Williams's exit velocity and Arquette's IL placement lands. The Marlins are playing out the string, and the backfield in Tempe, where Longenhagen noted he was working, is where the real evaluation work is happening now.

It is also worth noting that, as reported separately, Sandy Alcantara will skip his final scheduled start of the season as the Marlins manage his workload. A club already thinking carefully about how it deploys its major-league arms in a lost season is, by extension, a club with a clear eye on what the next roster cycle looks like — and prospects like Williams, however raw, are part of that picture.

What we don't know yet

Longenhagen said he would try to determine what happened to Arquette and what his Fall League outlook looks like, but no answer was reported in the chat. The nature of the IL placement — what prompted it, how significant it is, whether it affects his fall availability — remains unresolved per Longenhagen's own account.

For Williams, the ranking question is similarly open. Longenhagen's framing was that the recent data changes the picture relative to the prior year, but he stopped well short of projecting a specific ranking movement. The contact rate concern is real, and a limited A-ball sample in a season interrupted by injury is not the kind of evidence that closes a debate.

What to watch

Longenhagen mentioned he is working on an update on Asian professional players for the following week, which he indicated would cover several names he expects to be discussed this offseason. That piece, when it publishes, will be the next significant prospect-adjacent news out of FanGraphs.

For Williams specifically, the Arizona Fall League — assuming he is healthy and participates — would be the next opportunity to either reinforce or complicate the contact-rate concern Longenhagen flagged. A 70% contact rate is the kind of number that demands a follow-up look, and the fall is where that look typically happens for A-ball prospects with questions attached.

For Arquette, the immediate question is simply whether he shows up in the Fall League at all. If he does not, the late IL placement will have cost him one of the more valuable evaluation windows available to a prospect at his level. Longenhagen's stated intention to run down the details during the chat suggests the answer was not immediately obvious even to someone embedded in the prospect-evaluation world — which is, in its own way, the most honest summary of where things stand.