Red Sox could still land in Texas instead of New York for Wild Card round

What happened

The Red Sox appear to have their Wild Card seeding locked up — until you look a little closer. Per Yahoo Sports, a long-shot three-way tie scenario still exists that could drop Boston from the No. 5 seed to the No. 6 seed in the American League, rerouting them from a trip to New York to a trip to Texas for the Wild Card round.

At 85-73, the Red Sox sit four games clear of the White Sox with four games remaining, and they hold a 6-0 head-to-head record against Chicago this season. On the surface, that looks airtight. But the 82-76 Cleveland Guardians are the wrench in the works, and their rubber game against Boston at Fenway Park on Thursday is the hinge point for the entire scenario.

Why it matters

Here is how the dominoes would have to fall, per Yahoo Sports: Cleveland wins Thursday's game at Fenway, then all three clubs — Boston, Chicago, and Cleveland — finish the weekend in a theoretical 85-77 tie. At that point, tiebreaker rules take over, and they do not favor Boston.

In a three-way tie where one club is from a different division, the divisional tie gets resolved first. The White Sox hold the tiebreaker over the Guardians, which means Chicago would claim the AL Central title in that scenario, leaving Boston and Cleveland to settle the final seeding between themselves. Right now, the Red Sox hold a 3-2 head-to-head edge over Cleveland — but if the Guardians win Thursday, that becomes 3-3, and the tiebreaker would flip to Cleveland on interdivision record, per Yahoo Sports.

The result: Cleveland goes to New York as the No. 5 seed to face the Yankees, and the Red Sox land in Texas as the No. 6 seed to face whoever wins the AL West — either the Astros or the Rangers.

It is, to be clear, a long shot. Yahoo Sports describes the scenario as "far fetched" and "bizarre." But the piece also notes that it gets "less and less ridiculous the more" you break it down step by step — which is precisely the kind of sentence that has a way of lodging itself in a fan's brain on a Thursday afternoon.

The numbers

Boston's record stands at 85-73 (.538), good for third in the AL East, 11 games back in the division race — from which they have already been eliminated. As a Wild Card club, they rank second in the AL, sitting +4.0 relative to the cut line, and they enter Thursday on a one-game winning streak.

The four-game cushion over the White Sox is the number that makes this scenario feel academic. The 6-0 head-to-head record against Chicago is the number that makes it feel even more so. The 3-2 head-to-head record against Cleveland is the number that makes Thursday's rubber match matter more than a late-September game between a locked-in Wild Card team and a long-shot contender probably should.

Where the club stands

The Red Sox are in, and that part is not in question. What remains unsettled, per Yahoo Sports, is exactly where they are going. Thursday's probable pitching matchup at Fenway is Ranger Suarez for Boston against Daniel Espino for Cleveland. After that, the schedule turns to a weekend series against the Chicago Cubs at Fenway — a series that, depending on what the nor'easter threatening the Boston coastline actually delivers, may or may not be played in full. That weather situation has been a topic of discussion for the better part of a week, per earlier Posterior Wire reporting.

On the front-office side, the club exercised options on Craig Breslow through 2030 and extended manager Chad Tracy on a deal covering 2027-29, per earlier Posterior Wire reporting. Whatever zip code the Wild Card round ends up in, the people running the operation appear to be staying put.

What we don't know yet

### Does Thursday's result actually change anything?

Only if everything else breaks exactly right. Cleveland winning Thursday is the necessary first condition, but it is not sufficient on its own — the White Sox would also need to run the table on their remaining games, and Boston would need to lose out entirely. Yahoo Sports does not assign a probability to the full chain of events, and neither will we. What the piece does establish is that the scenario is mathematically alive entering Thursday's first pitch.

It is also worth noting that the Yahoo Sports article, as published, does not reach a conclusion — the source text ends mid-sentence, so the full accounting of how likely or unlikely the outlet ultimately judges this to be is not available from the published portion.

What to watch

Thursday's game between the Red Sox and Guardians at Fenway Park is the first domino. Ranger Suarez takes the ball for Boston against Daniel Espino for Cleveland. A Cleveland win keeps the three-way scenario breathing; a Boston win ends it entirely and locks the Red Sox into the No. 5 seed.

Beyond the seeding question, there are a few other threads worth tracking as the regular season winds down. Garrett Crochet threw live batting practice hitting 96 mph earlier this week, signaling he is progressing toward a return from injury — though no timetable has been reported, per earlier Posterior Wire reporting. Ceddanne Rafaela, who exited his first game back from the injured list with right hamstring tightness, remains a question mark after that development raised concern about a return to the IL, per earlier Posterior Wire reporting.

The roster picture heading into October is still taking shape. The seeding picture, as of Thursday, is almost settled — just not quite.