Steven Kwan posts 178 wRC+ over last 10 games as Guardians clinch playoff berth

Steven Kwan is hitting again. Whether that sentence will still be true by the time you finish reading is, per FanGraphs writer Davy Andrews, a more complicated question than it sounds.

What happened

Writing for FanGraphs, Andrews revisited Kwan's offensive profile after a reader named Kevin — the same Kevin who prompted Andrews's original June 23 deep dive into Kwan's struggles — wrote back to ask what had changed. The short answer, per Andrews: Kwan has posted a 178 wRC+ over his most recent 10 games. The longer answer involves a rolling graph that Andrews himself describes as cause for wariness.

Since July 1, Kwan has batted .350 with more walks than strikeouts and a 154 wRC+, per the piece. But the trajectory between then and now was not a straight line. Kwan ran scorching numbers at the start of July, then spent roughly two months gradually cooling. A September 1 story by Zack Meisel in The Athletic captured Kwan describing how he had reviewed journal entries from previous slumps to find the right mental reset — and then, per Andrews, over the 12 games that followed that story, Kwan posted a wRC+ of 80, striking out at twice the rate he walked. Andrews flags that sequence explicitly as a cautionary tale about writing into a hot streak.

Why it matters

The timing lands in the middle of a meaningful stretch for Cleveland. The Guardians clinched their third consecutive playoff berth with a late-game comeback, per Posterior Wire reporting, and carry an 83-76 record (.522) into the final days of the regular season as the AL Central's first-place club. A Kwan producing at the top of the lineup is a different offensive instrument than the one Andrews was puzzling over in June.

Andrews's original analysis found that Kwan had pushed an already unusual offensive profile into genuinely unprecedented territory. Among qualified players, Kwan's contact rate on pitches in the strike zone — 97.8% — was the highest ever recorded in the Statcast era, per Andrews. His squared-up rate ranked fourth highest since Statcast began measuring it in 2023. His swing rate on pitches in the zone was the fifth lowest in the Statcast era, more than four percentage points below his previous career low. He was also running the second-lowest bat speed ever recorded and the second-lowest hard-hit rate ever recorded, above only 2018 Billy Hamilton, per the piece.

That profile — extreme patience, extreme contact, minimal aggression, minimal power — has always been Kwan's foundation. The question Andrews is now revisiting is whether the version producing a 178 wRC+ over the last 10 games represents a genuine recalibration or something more fleeting.

The numbers

The season-long wRC+ of 154 since July 1 is the headline figure, but Andrews is careful to note that the rolling graph underneath it is lumpy. The 178 wRC+ over the last 10 games sits at one end of a range that also included an 80 wRC+ stretch across 12 games in early September. Andrews raises whether variance in batting average on balls in play might explain the swings and declines to dismiss it — "Is this just about BABIP? I really don't know, Kevin," he writes — which is a more honest framing than most hot-streak narratives allow.

On July 1, Kwan went 1-for-2 with a triple, followed that with 1-for-2 and two walks the next day, and added another triple two days after that, per Andrews. Those early returns were eye-catching. What came after them was more complicated.

Where the club stands

Cleveland heads to Kauffman Stadium for a three-game series against the Kansas City Royals to close the regular season at 83-76 (.522), first in the AL Central, on a one-game winning streak. Gavin Williams is the reported probable starter Friday against Noah Cameron. Tanner Bibee is listed as the probable for Saturday against Michael Wacha. Sunday's starter for Cleveland is listed as TBD, with Daniel Lynch IV projected for Kansas City.

The roster picture around Kwan has had some movement in recent days. The Guardians reinstated right-hander Shawn Armstrong from the 60-day injured list and designated right-hander Connor Brogdon for assignment, per earlier Posterior Wire reporting. Angel Martínez has been out of the lineup due to injury, with Petey Halpin filling in at center field, per separate reporting. Colin Holderman exited a Triple-A rehab outing early with right wrist pain, leaving his return timeline uncertain.

What we don't know yet

Andrews is candid that he does not yet have a clean answer for Kevin — or for himself. The piece is framed explicitly as a work in progress: Andrews notes he is writing the introduction before digging into the numbers, inviting the reader along rather than presenting a verdict. Whether the recent 10-game surge reflects a mechanical or approach-based adjustment, or whether it is primarily a variance-driven run that will level off, is left genuinely open.

What to watch

The obvious question heading into October is whether the Kwan who shows up in the postseason resembles the .350-hitting, walk-drawing version from July or the 80-wRC+ version from early September. Andrews does not speculate on that, and neither will we — but the rolling graph he flags is worth keeping in mind as Cleveland's playoff schedule takes shape. A three-game closing series in Kansas City offers a small but real sample before the calendar turns.