Twins enter 2026-27 offseason with $60M in 2027 commitments and a busier winter ahead

What happened

The Minnesota Twins closed out a 77-85 season and are now turning toward an offseason that, per Steve Adams at MLB Trade Rumors, already carries more energy than the one that preceded it. The club enters the winter with $60.275MM in total 2027 commitments and $88.775MM in obligations running through 2028, a financial picture that is meaningfully different from the near-blank-slate situation that emerged from the 2025 deadline teardown. Ownership has announced that payroll will increase for the 2027 season, and the roster decisions stacking up between now and spring training are substantial.

Why it matters

The contrast with last winter is the whole story. The 2025 deadline teardown shipped out 11 players, and the Pohlad family — which has owned the club for four decades — had been exploring a sale before pivoting toward bringing in minority stakeholders. The offseason that followed was, per Adams, quiet. This one, by the available signals, will not be.

Ownership's announced payroll increase gives the front office something it did not have a year ago: a stated mandate to spend. The $60.275MM already committed for 2027 is a floor, not a ceiling, and the decisions ahead — on options, arbitration cases, and free agents — will determine how much room remains above it.

The Twins were buyers at the trade deadline this past summer, which itself was a notable posture for a team that finished 77-85. Adams notes that their contention window in the first half owed something to an American League that was, in his framing, almost unfathomably mediocre — one where most clubs were nominally in the race deep into the summer. The final record was, per Adams, more or less in line with preseason expectations. That framing matters: this is not a team rebuilding from a surprise collapse. It is a team that knew roughly where it stood and is now trying to take a step forward with a fuller wallet.

Where the club stands

The Twins finished 77-85 (.475), third in the AL Central and 8 games back in the division. They ranked 7th in the Wild Card standings, 7.0 games relative to the cut line, and were eliminated from both races before the season ended. The season is over; the offseason work is what remains.

The guaranteed-contract ledger, per Adams, breaks down as follows: Byron Buxton is owed $30MM through 2028, with up to $10.5MM in annual incentives tied to plate appearances and MVP voting. Pablo López carries $21.5MM through 2027. Victor Caratini is owed $10MM through 2027, a figure that includes a $3.5MM buyout of a 2028 mutual option. Jeff Hoffman is owed $7.25MM through 2027, with the Blue Jays covering $3.75MM of his $11MM salary. Beyond the active roster, the Twins still owe $20MM to the Astros — $10MM in 2027 and $10MM in 2028 — as part of the 2025 Carlos Correa trade. A $25K buyout on a 2027 mutual option for Justin Topa, released in May, rounds out the ledger.

What we don't know yet

The most consequential near-term decisions involve options and arbitration. Joe Ryan has a $13MM mutual option for 2027 with a $100K buyout; if the option is declined, he remains arbitration-eligible, with a projected salary of $9.6MM per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. Josh Bell carries a $10MM mutual option with a $1.25MM buyout. Whether either or both options get exercised is unresolved.

The arbitration class is sizable. Swartz's projections, per Adams: Anthony Banda at $2.3MM, Dean Kremer at $6.5MM, Bailey Ober at $6.9MM, Trevor Larnach at $6.3MM, Royce Lewis at $5.1MM, Cole Sands at $1.3MM, Tommy Nance at $1.2MM, Kody Clemens at $3.6MM, and Taj Bradley at $4.5MM. Adams identifies Banda, Ober, Lewis, and Sands as non-tender candidates — meaning the club could decline to offer them contracts, making them free agents. Whether any or all of those non-tenders actually happen is unresolved.

The free-agent group includes Ryan Jeffers, A.J. Minter, Taylor Rogers, and Alex Jackson, who was outrighted. Whether Minnesota re-engages any of them is an open question. Per a separate report, Rogers intends to pitch in 2027 and has stated a preference for returning to Minnesota or joining twin brother Tyler with the Blue Jays — but no agreement has been reported.

Byron Buxton's availability is its own thread. Per a separate report, he had arthroscopic right hip surgery on September 18 and is rehabbing through December, on track to be healthy for 2027. His contract runs through 2028 and includes up to $10.5MM in annual incentives tied to plate appearances — which makes his health not just a roster question but a financial one. The incentive structure is built around him playing; the reported recovery timeline suggests he could be ready, but December is still ahead.

What to watch

The option decisions on Ryan and Bell will set the early tone. The non-tender decisions on Banda, Ober, Lewis, and Sands will signal how aggressively the front office intends to clear space for outside additions. Each of those calls carries its own arithmetic, and the order in which they fall will shape what the Twins can realistically pursue on the open market.

The ownership payroll commitment is the backdrop for all of it. A stated intention to raise payroll is not a dollar figure, and the gap between "more than last year" and "enough to meaningfully upgrade the roster" is where front offices live in October. The Twins finished 8 games out of the division and 7.0 games out of the Wild Card. The bookkeeping, at least, appears to be moving in the right direction — and there are, per Adams, already signs that this winter will be more active than the last one.