Athletics.
The year-round intelligence desk for Athletics.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
18
Executable
18
archive-backed
Resolved
18
Won
11
Lost
7
Win rate
61.1%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.2384Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=0—model—realised
- 20–30%n=0—model—realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=159.8%model100.0%realised
- 60–70%n=1763.2%model58.8%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff McNeil | 6 | 6 | 3 | 50% | 0.2604 |
| Henry Bolte | 5 | 5 | 3 | 60% | 0.2518 |
| Lawrence Butler | 2 | 2 | 2 | 100% | 0.1397 |
| Zack Gelof | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.3888 |
| Carlos Cortes | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1131 |
| Shea Langeliers | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1368 |
| Tommy White | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1619 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Cortes | 1+ Hits | 66.4% | 56.5% | +9.9pp | WON |
| Jeff McNeil | 1+ Hits | 60.9% | 64.8% | -4.0pp | — |
| Jeff McNeil | 1+ Hits | 60.7% | 64.0% | -3.3pp | — |
| Henry Bolte | 1+ Hits | 65.3% | 67.1% | -1.8pp | — |
| Jeff McNeil | 1+ Hits | 64.8% | 66.1% | -1.3pp | — |
| Henry Bolte | 1+ Hits | 65.0% | 66.3% | -1.2pp | — |
| Shea Langeliers | 1+ Hits | 63.0% | 62.6% | +0.4pp | WON |
| Zack Gelof | 1+ Hits | 61.4% | 61.5% | -0.2pp | — |