Athletics.
The year-round intelligence desk for Athletics.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
7
Executable
7
archive-backed
Resolved
7
Won
5
Lost
2
Win rate
71.4%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.1835Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=218.3%model0.0%realised
- 20–30%n=122.3%model100.0%realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=257.8%model100.0%realised
- 60–70%n=264.3%model100.0%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Muncy | 3 | 3 | 1 | 33% | 0.0874 |
| Zack Gelof | 2 | 2 | 2 | 100% | 0.3830 |
| Carlos Cortes | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1131 |
| Shea Langeliers | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1434 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Cortes | 1+ Hits | 66.4% | 56.5% | +9.9pp | WON |
| Shea Langeliers | 1+ Hits | 62.1% | 53.1% | +9.0pp | WON |
| Zack Gelof | 1+ Hits | 59.8% | 53.1% | +6.7pp | WON |
| Max Muncy | 1+ Hits | 55.8% | 51.8% | +4.0pp | WON |
| Zack Gelof | 2+ Hits | 22.3% | 19.1% | +3.2pp | WON |