Cubs.
The year-round intelligence desk for Chicago.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
20
Executable
20
archive-backed
Resolved
20
Won
11
Lost
9
Win rate
55.0%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.2531Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=0—model—realised
- 20–30%n=0—model—realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=359.6%model66.7%realised
- 60–70%n=1763.3%model52.9%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | 6 | 6 | 3 | 50% | 0.2561 |
| Nico Hoerner | 5 | 5 | 2 | 40% | 0.2975 |
| Alex Bregman | 4 | 4 | 2 | 50% | 0.2737 |
| Michael Busch | 2 | 2 | 2 | 100% | 0.1300 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 2 | 2 | 1 | 50% | 0.2604 |
| Pedro Ramírez | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1625 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Hoerner | 1+ Hits | 63.0% | 68.1% | -5.1pp | — |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | 1+ Hits | 59.3% | 62.2% | -2.9pp | — |
| Nico Hoerner | 1+ Hits | 64.3% | 66.4% | -2.1pp | — |
| Nico Hoerner | 1+ Hits | 62.1% | 64.1% | -2.0pp | — |
| Alex Bregman | 1+ Hits | 62.2% | 64.3% | -2.0pp | — |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | 1+ Hits | 61.7% | 63.0% | -1.3pp | — |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | 1+ Hits | 65.2% | 66.5% | -1.3pp | — |
| Michael Busch | 1+ Hits | 66.5% | 65.5% | +1.0pp | WON |
| Alex Bregman | 1+ Hits | 64.5% | 65.4% | -1.0pp | — |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | 1+ Hits | 65.6% | 64.7% | +0.9pp | WON |