Willson Contreras unlikely to play in doubleheader as right hand pain lingers

What happened

Red Sox first baseman Willson Contreras told reporters Thursday that he has been unable to swing a bat for two days due to persistent right hand pain, per Charlie Wright of MLB Trade Rumors. Contreras has been sidelined for a week after being struck by a Jakob Junis sinker the previous Thursday. Additional imaging done Wednesday did not reveal a fracture, Contreras said — as relayed by Christopher Smith of MassLive.com — but the discomfort has not cleared. He said he is unlikely to play in Friday's doubleheader.

On what comes next, Contreras was candid. Per Smith, he said he would be completely honest with the team about whether he could play Sunday or Tuesday, adding that he did not want to hurt the club in any way. Boston's postseason action is set to begin Tuesday, and Contreras will have three more regular-season games in which he could potentially suit up before then.

Why it matters

Boston has wrapped up a Wild Card spot, and Contreras is the engine of the offense. Per MLB Trade Rumors, he paces the Red Sox in home runs, RBI, and on-base percentage, and his 152 wRC+ this season is a career best. His absence from the Wild Card round would represent a significant blow to a lineup that will need every advantage it can find.

Should Contreras be unable to make the postseason roster, Nick Sogard and Mickey Gasper would handle first base, per the report. Sogard has started six straight games at the position since moving there when Contreras was knocked out of the game against the Rangers. Utility players Andruw Monasterio and Isiah Kiner-Falefa could provide right-handed hitting options off the bench, per MLB Trade Rumors.

The numbers

Contreras carries a career-best 152 wRC+ into the postseason picture, leading the Red Sox in home runs, RBI, and on-base percentage.

Ceddanne Rafaela, who returned to the lineup Thursday after a hamstring scare the day before, was hitting .284 heading into Thursday's action with a 109 wRC+, per MLB Trade Rumors — the best offensive output of his young career after three seasons below .250.

Boston enters Friday's action at 85-74 (.535), sitting third in the AL East and holding the No. 2 Wild Card spot in the American League, +3.0 relative to the cut line.

Where the club stands

Boston is 85-74 (.535), third in the AL East and 11 games back in the division race, which is closed. The Red Sox hold the No. 2 Wild Card position at +3.0 relative to the cut line and enter Friday on a one-game losing streak. Friday's doubleheader at Fenway Park features the Chicago Cubs, with Brayan Bello listed as a probable starter for one game and Clay Holmes for the other against David Peterson and a TBD starter.

A long-shot three-way tie scenario reported two days ago could still drop Boston to the No. 6 AL seed, which would send them to Texas rather than New York for the Wild Card round — a wrinkle that has not been resolved.

What we don't know yet

Imaging did not reveal a fracture, but the source of the ongoing pain and its expected timeline have not been reported. Whether Contreras will be available for Sunday's regular-season game — let alone Tuesday's playoff opener — remains an open question he said he will answer honestly with the club as the days progress. His postseason roster status is not yet determined.

Garrett Crochet's situation adds another layer of uncertainty. The left-hander is scheduled to face hitters Saturday in Florida, per Tim Healey of the Boston Globe, but his postseason availability has not been established. A week removed from reports of Crochet hitting 96 mph in live batting practice, Saturday's session will be the next data point on his readiness.

What to watch

Contreras's status for Sunday is the most immediate signal. If he can swing without pain by then, his Wild Card roster inclusion becomes more plausible; if not, Boston's front office will need to finalize contingency plans at first base before Tuesday. Crochet's Saturday session in Florida is the other thread to pull — what he throws, how he feels afterward, and whether the club offers any update on a potential activation will shape the pitching picture for the postseason.

Rafaela's return is the one piece of good news in an otherwise unsettled injury picture. A day after exiting his first game back from the IL with right hamstring tightness — raising concern about a second straight stint on the injured list — he was back in the lineup Thursday following a clean MRI, per Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic. His continued availability in center field, where he has provided what MLB Trade Rumors describes as Gold Glove-caliber defense, matters for a team that needs its best players healthy when Tuesday arrives.