Zach Eflin hopes to stay with Orioles after Tommy John surgery ends his 2026 season

Zach Eflin would like to remain an Oriole. The catch, as Connor Byrne of MLB Trade Rumors reports, is that Baltimore is expected to buy out the $25MM mutual option on his contract for $2MM, making him a free agent — one who underwent Tommy John surgery in April and is expected to miss a significant portion of the 2027 season while he rehabs.

That is a lot of asterisks attached to a pitcher who, not long ago, was one of the more quietly effective starters in the American League.

What happened

Eflin left his first start of 2026 with elbow discomfort and subsequently underwent Tommy John surgery in early April, per MLB Trade Rumors. His one-year, $10MM contract for 2026 — brought back last winter after a 5.93 ERA, injury-limited, 71 1/3-inning 2025 campaign — included a $25MM mutual option for 2027. Per the report, the Orioles are certain to buy him out for $2MM rather than exercise that option.

That buyout would make Eflin a free agent heading into an offseason defined, at least for him, by recovery rather than leverage. Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com writes that Eflin would "love to stay" with Baltimore, and the report notes the team could welcome him back on a much cheaper arrangement. Because he is expected to miss a sizable portion of next season, Eflin may seek a two-year deal when he reaches the open market — a structure that would let a club spread its risk across a healthier second year.

Why it matters

The Orioles are staring at a rotation that needs significant reconstruction. Per MLB Trade Rumors, Kyle Bradish, Shane Baz, and Brandon Young are the only locks for Baltimore's 2027 rotation as things currently stand. That is a short list, and the club is simultaneously navigating uncertainty around two other veteran starters.

Southpaw Trevor Rogers is described by MLB Trade Rumors as a strong qualifying offer candidate who should draw considerable market interest if he declines it. Righty Chris Bassitt, also an impending free agent, is reportedly weighing retirement at the age of 37. Lose both, and the Orioles' rotation picture becomes considerably thinner — which is part of what makes the Eflin question more than a sentimental footnote.

A reunion on a cheaper, incentive-laden arrangement would give Baltimore a familiar arm with a known profile, assuming his recovery proceeds smoothly. The report is careful to note that any team that brings Eflin aboard will hope for exactly that: a smooth recovery and a return to the mid-rotation form he showed before lat, back, and elbow injuries interrupted his career.

The rotation uncertainty arrives in a broader context of organizational upheaval. A week removed from the trade deadline that sent Adley Rutschman to the Red Sox for a five-player package including Carlos Narvaez and four prospects — per earlier Posterior Wire reporting — the Orioles are in a clear transitional moment. Eflin's situation is one piece of a larger offseason puzzle.

The numbers

Before the injuries piled up, Eflin was genuinely good. Per MLB Trade Rumors, over a 59-start, 343-inning stretch split between Tampa Bay and Baltimore — the Orioles acquired him from the Rays in July 2024 — he posted a 3.54 ERA. The peripheral support was equally encouraging: his xERA sat at 3.36, his FIP at 3.37, his xFIP at 3.45, and his SIERA at 3.62. All four estimators told the same story.

The walk rate during that run was particularly striking: Eflin issued free passes to just 3.5% of hitters, a figure that trailed only the Mariners' George Kirby (2.7%) among the comparison group cited in the report. That kind of command is not a fluke — it is a skill set. Over 949 2/3 innings from 2018 through 2024, Eflin pitched to a 4.07 ERA with similar peripherals, per the report. His career strikeout rate is 20.7%, his walk rate 5.7%, and his ground-ball rate 43.8%. He does not overpower hitters, but he has consistently made them put the ball on the ground and rarely handed out bases for free.

Those traits have sustained a starting career that began with the Phillies in 2016. His first couple of seasons were difficult, and 2025 was difficult again, but the long middle stretch of his career demonstrated a durable, if unspectacular, floor.

Where the club stands

Baltimore finished 79-82 (.491), fourth in the AL East and 18.5 games behind the division leader. The club ranked fifth in the Wild Card race, 4.5 games relative to the cut line, and has been eliminated from both the division and Wild Card races. The Orioles dropped their most recent game, entering the offseason on a one-game losing streak.

That record is the backdrop against which every roster decision this winter will be made. A team finishing 18.5 games out of the division does not have the luxury of treating any rotation slot as a given, which makes the Bradish-Baz-Young trio as a starting point feel both honest and a little sobering.

The injury picture compounds the challenge. Jordan Westburg missed the entire 2026 season — per earlier Posterior Wire reporting, he underwent an oblique strain and Tommy John surgery in May and has only recently begun a hitting progression, with his 2027 timeline still uncertain. Prospect Ike Irish suffered a torn meniscus in late July and is in the Arizona Fall League working to recover playing time, per prior reporting. Eflin's situation adds another layer to what is already a complicated medical ledger heading into the offseason.

What we don't know yet

The report does not specify when the buyout will be formally processed, nor does it include any indication that Baltimore and Eflin have begun substantive talks about a reunion arrangement. Kubatko's reporting establishes Eflin's preference; it does not establish that the Orioles share it at any particular price point.

The timetable for Eflin's recovery is described in general terms — he is expected to miss a significant portion of 2027 — but no specific return target appears in the report. Tommy John recovery timelines vary, and the report appropriately hedges rather than projecting a date.

Whether Rogers accepts or declines a qualifying offer, and what Bassitt ultimately decides about retirement, will shape how urgently Baltimore needs to address the rotation through other means. Those decisions remain pending.

What to watch

The first domino is the formal buyout of Eflin's option, which would open the free-agent process. After that, the question becomes whether Baltimore engages him on a lower-cost arrangement — and at what structure. The report's mention of a potential two-year deal reflects the market reality that Eflin's value right now is partly deferred: a club would be paying for a healthy future version as much as the rehabbing present one.

Rogers' qualifying offer decision will also clarify how much rotation work the Orioles need to replace internally versus externally. If both Rogers and Bassitt depart, the math on a reunion with Eflin — even a recovering one — gets more compelling for a front office that knows his profile and has seen him pitch well in an Orioles uniform.

Eflin has been here before, in a sense. Lat injuries, back injuries, and now elbow surgery have interrupted a career that keeps finding its footing. His track record from 2018 through 2024 suggests the floor is real when he is healthy. Whether Baltimore is the place he tries to prove it again is, for now, an open question on both sides of the negotiation.