Diamondbacks.
The year-round intelligence desk for Arizona.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
25
Executable
25
archive-backed
Resolved
25
Won
16
Lost
9
Win rate
64.0%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.2272Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=14.0%model0.0%realised
- 20–30%n=120.9%model100.0%realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=459.0%model25.0%realised
- 60–70%n=1962.7%model73.7%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Moreno | 5 | 5 | 4 | 80% | 0.1809 |
| Ryan Waldschmidt | 5 | 5 | 1 | 20% | 0.3411 |
| Corbin Carroll | 3 | 3 | 2 | 67% | 0.2366 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 3 | 3 | 3 | 100% | 0.1537 |
| Ketel Marte | 3 | 3 | 3 | 100% | 0.1425 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1410 |
| Jordan Lawlar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.3320 |
| Lars Nootbaar | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1362 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.3750 |
| Nolan Arenado | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.3642 |
| Tim Tawa | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1241 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | 1+ Hits | 61.2% | 66.3% | -5.0pp | — |
| Gabriel Moreno | 1+ Hits | 63.2% | 68.1% | -4.9pp | — |
| Nolan Arenado | 1+ Hits | 60.3% | 63.4% | -3.1pp | — |
| Ryan Waldschmidt | 2+ Hits | 20.9% | 18.0% | +2.9pp | WON |
| Corbin Carroll | 1+ Hits | 64.3% | 65.9% | -1.6pp | — |
| Lars Nootbaar | 1+ Hits | 63.1% | 61.6% | +1.5pp | WON |
| Gabriel Moreno | 1+ Hits | 64.9% | 64.3% | +0.6pp | WON |