Braves.
The year-round intelligence desk for Atlanta.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
15
Executable
15
archive-backed
Resolved
15
Won
6
Lost
9
Win rate
40.0%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.2361Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=117.3%model0.0%realised
- 20–30%n=124.3%model0.0%realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=147.8%model100.0%realised
- 50–60%n=557.4%model40.0%realised
- 60–70%n=761.6%model42.9%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ozzie Albies | 4 | 4 | 3 | 75% | 0.1242 |
| Austin Riley | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.3728 |
| Jim Jarvis | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.2039 |
| Mike Yastrzemski | 3 | 3 | 1 | 33% | 0.3336 |
| Dominic Smith | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1518 |
| Matt Olson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1612 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Smith | 1+ Hits | 61.0% | 45.7% | +15.3pp | WON |
| Mike Yastrzemski | 1+ Hits | 47.8% | 37.2% | +10.5pp | WON |
| Matt Olson | 1+ Hits | 59.8% | 49.4% | +10.4pp | WON |
| Ozzie Albies | 1+ Hits | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.0pp | WON |
| Ozzie Albies | 1+ Hits | 62.3% | 57.1% | +5.2pp | WON |
| Ozzie Albies | 1+ Hits | 63.1% | 58.3% | +4.8pp | WON |