Braves.
The year-round intelligence desk for Atlanta.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
31
Executable
31
archive-backed
Resolved
31
Won
18
Lost
13
Win rate
58.1%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.2421Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=0—model—realised
- 20–30%n=0—model—realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=358.5%model0.0%realised
- 60–70%n=2863.1%model64.3%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Baldwin | 8 | 8 | 3 | 38% | 0.3086 |
| Matt Olson | 6 | 6 | 4 | 67% | 0.2116 |
| Mauricio Dubón | 6 | 6 | 6 | 100% | 0.1353 |
| Michael Harris II | 5 | 5 | 4 | 80% | 0.1886 |
| Austin Riley | 3 | 3 | 1 | 33% | 0.2690 |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.4015 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Harris II | 1+ Hits | 62.2% | 66.6% | -4.4pp | — |
| Drake Baldwin | 1+ Hits | 63.0% | 67.0% | -4.1pp | — |
| Austin Riley | 1+ Hits | 57.0% | 60.8% | -3.8pp | — |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | 1+ Hits | 63.9% | 67.6% | -3.7pp | — |
| Drake Baldwin | 1+ Hits | 62.9% | 66.1% | -3.2pp | — |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | 1+ Hits | 63.8% | 66.8% | -3.0pp | — |
| Austin Riley | 1+ Hits | 58.6% | 61.6% | -3.0pp | — |
| Matt Olson | 1+ Hits | 59.8% | 62.4% | -2.5pp | — |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | 1+ Hits | 62.4% | 64.9% | -2.5pp | — |
| Austin Riley | 1+ Hits | 62.8% | 60.7% | +2.0pp | WON |