Orioles.
The year-round intelligence desk for Baltimore.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
6
Executable
6
archive-backed
Resolved
6
Won
5
Lost
1
Win rate
83.3%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.1843Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=0—model—realised
- 20–30%n=0—model—realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=0—model—realised
- 60–70%n=663.3%model83.3%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gunnar Henderson | 3 | 3 | 2 | 67% | 0.2418 |
| Pete Alonso | 3 | 3 | 3 | 100% | 0.1268 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso | 1+ Hits | 65.6% | 62.4% | +3.2pp | WON |
| Pete Alonso | 1+ Hits | 63.3% | 61.4% | +1.8pp | WON |
| Gunnar Henderson | 1+ Hits | 61.2% | 60.1% | +1.1pp | WON |