Orioles.
The year-round intelligence desk for Baltimore.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
16
Executable
16
archive-backed
Resolved
16
Won
11
Lost
5
Win rate
68.8%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.2221Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=0—model—realised
- 20–30%n=0—model—realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=355.3%model66.7%realised
- 60–70%n=1363.3%model69.2%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso | 6 | 6 | 5 | 83% | 0.1709 |
| Gunnar Henderson | 5 | 5 | 3 | 60% | 0.2498 |
| Blaze Alexander | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1354 |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.3431 |
| Coby Mayo | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.2306 |
| Dylan Beavers | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.2002 |
| Luis Robert Jr. | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.3701 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coby Mayo | 1+ Hits | 52.0% | 46.9% | +5.0pp | WON |
| Dylan Beavers | 1+ Hits | 55.3% | 50.4% | +4.9pp | WON |
| Pete Alonso | 1+ Hits | 65.6% | 62.4% | +3.2pp | WON |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | 1+ Hits | 58.6% | 61.6% | -3.0pp | — |
| Luis Robert Jr. | 1+ Hits | 60.8% | 63.8% | -3.0pp | — |
| Gunnar Henderson | 1+ Hits | 62.4% | 64.5% | -2.1pp | — |
| Pete Alonso | 1+ Hits | 63.3% | 61.4% | +1.8pp | WON |
| Gunnar Henderson | 1+ Hits | 61.2% | 60.1% | +1.1pp | WON |
| Gunnar Henderson | 1+ Hits | 63.4% | 62.5% | +0.8pp | WON |
| Pete Alonso | 1+ Hits | 65.2% | 64.8% | +0.4pp | WON |