Red Sox.
The year-round intelligence desk for Boston.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
8
Executable
8
archive-backed
Resolved
8
Won
6
Lost
2
Win rate
75.0%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.2128Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=0—model—realised
- 20–30%n=0—model—realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=159.0%model100.0%realised
- 60–70%n=762.9%model71.4%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Anthony | 3 | 3 | 2 | 67% | 0.2501 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | 2 | 2 | 1 | 50% | 0.2669 |
| Adley Rutschman | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1402 |
| Willson Contreras | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1452 |
| Wilyer Abreu | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1328 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Anthony | 1+ Hits | 61.8% | 60.8% | +1.0pp | WON |
| Roman Anthony | 1+ Hits | 66.1% | 66.5% | -0.5pp | — |