Red Sox.
The year-round intelligence desk for Boston.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
51
Executable
51
archive-backed
Resolved
51
Won
32
Lost
19
Win rate
62.7%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.2210Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=0—model—realised
- 20–30%n=223.0%model0.0%realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=256.9%model50.0%realised
- 60–70%n=4763.2%model66.0%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wilyer Abreu | 11 | 11 | 8 | 73% | 0.2068 |
| Roman Anthony | 8 | 8 | 4 | 50% | 0.2778 |
| Adley Rutschman | 7 | 7 | 6 | 86% | 0.1750 |
| Mickey Gasper | 7 | 7 | 2 | 29% | 0.3316 |
| Caleb Durbin | 5 | 5 | 4 | 80% | 0.1904 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | 4 | 4 | 3 | 75% | 0.1886 |
| Nick Sogard | 4 | 4 | 3 | 75% | 0.2080 |
| Willson Contreras | 2 | 2 | 1 | 50% | 0.1024 |
| Anthony Seigler | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.0468 |
| Connor Wong | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.2999 |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1371 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Sogard | 1+ Hits | 60.2% | 53.1% | +7.1pp | WON |
| Mickey Gasper | 1+ Hits | 61.9% | 57.0% | +5.0pp | WON |
| Wilyer Abreu | 1+ Hits | 62.9% | 59.1% | +3.8pp | WON |
| Roman Anthony | 1+ Hits | 64.2% | 66.7% | -2.4pp | — |
| Mickey Gasper | 1+ Hits | 64.7% | 67.1% | -2.4pp | — |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | 1+ Hits | 68.0% | 66.0% | +2.0pp | WON |
| Roman Anthony | 1+ Hits | 63.0% | 65.0% | -2.0pp | — |
| Wilyer Abreu | 1+ Hits | 63.6% | 65.5% | -1.9pp | — |
| Wilyer Abreu | 1+ Hits | 63.2% | 64.9% | -1.8pp | — |
| Wilyer Abreu | 1+ Hits | 62.8% | 64.5% | -1.6pp | — |