Reds.
The year-round intelligence desk for Cincinnati.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
17
Executable
17
archive-backed
Resolved
17
Won
12
Lost
5
Win rate
70.6%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.2242Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=0—model—realised
- 20–30%n=0—model—realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=0—model—realised
- 60–70%n=1764.2%model70.6%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sal Stewart | 8 | 8 | 6 | 75% | 0.2077 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 4 | 4 | 3 | 75% | 0.2090 |
| Dane Myers | 3 | 3 | 1 | 33% | 0.3383 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 2 | 2 | 2 | 100% | 0.1492 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elly De La Cruz | 1+ Hits | 68.3% | 65.0% | +3.3pp | WON |
| Elly De La Cruz | 1+ Hits | 66.4% | 63.3% | +3.1pp | WON |
| Sal Stewart | 1+ Hits | 64.7% | 67.5% | -2.8pp | — |
| Sal Stewart | 1+ Hits | 62.4% | 61.0% | +1.4pp | WON |
| Sal Stewart | 1+ Hits | 64.6% | 64.8% | -0.1pp | — |
| Elly De La Cruz | 1+ Hits | 62.5% | 62.4% | +0.0pp | WON |