Reds.
The year-round intelligence desk for Cincinnati.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
5
Executable
5
archive-backed
Resolved
5
Won
1
Lost
4
Win rate
20.0%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.1874Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=219.1%model0.0%realised
- 20–30%n=0—model—realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=157.3%model0.0%realised
- 60–70%n=263.7%model50.0%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Trevino | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.1823 |
| Dane Myers | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.4040 |
| Eugenio Suárez | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.0373 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1312 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 1+ Hits | 63.8% | 52.8% | +10.9pp | WON |