Tigers.
The year-round intelligence desk for Detroit.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
25
Executable
25
archive-backed
Resolved
24
Won
15
Lost
9
Win rate
62.5%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.2343Voided: 1
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=0—model—realised
- 20–30%n=0—model—realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=358.2%model66.7%realised
- 60–70%n=2163.1%model61.9%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin McGonigle | 8 | 8 | 6 | 75% | 0.1937 |
| Hao-Yu Lee | 6 | 5 | 4 | 80% | 0.1996 |
| Eduardo Valencia | 3 | 3 | 2 | 67% | 0.2420 |
| Riley Greene | 3 | 3 | 1 | 33% | 0.2991 |
| Max Clark | 2 | 2 | 2 | 100% | 0.1667 |
| Dillon Dingler | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.3633 |
| Gleyber Torres | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.3961 |
| Zach McKinstry | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.3589 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin McGonigle | 1+ Hits | 66.5% | 61.4% | +5.2pp | WON |
| Kevin McGonigle | 1+ Hits | 68.9% | 65.1% | +3.9pp | WON |
| Eduardo Valencia | 1+ Hits | 65.3% | 62.0% | +3.3pp | WON |
| Dillon Dingler | 1+ Hits | 60.3% | 63.1% | -2.9pp | — |
| Riley Greene | 1+ Hits | 63.3% | 60.5% | +2.7pp | WON |
| Hao-Yu Lee | 1+ Hits | 62.3% | 60.3% | +2.0pp | WON |
| Kevin McGonigle | 1+ Hits | 67.7% | 66.1% | +1.6pp | WON |
| Riley Greene | 1+ Hits | 61.2% | 62.8% | -1.6pp | — |
| Gleyber Torres | 1+ Hits | 62.9% | 63.3% | -0.3pp | — |
| Riley Greene | 1+ Hits | 62.3% | 62.6% | -0.3pp | — |