Tigers.
The year-round intelligence desk for Detroit.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
9
Executable
9
archive-backed
Resolved
9
Won
3
Lost
6
Win rate
33.3%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.2937Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=0—model—realised
- 20–30%n=0—model—realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=557.3%model40.0%realised
- 60–70%n=461.6%model25.0%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Torkelson | 3 | 3 | 1 | 33% | 0.2762 |
| Max Clark | 2 | 2 | 2 | 100% | 0.1684 |
| Zach McKinstry | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.3843 |
| Colt Keith | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.3769 |
| Eduardo Valencia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.3321 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Clark | 1+ Hits | 56.8% | 46.2% | +10.7pp | WON |
| Max Clark | 1+ Hits | 61.2% | 54.5% | +6.8pp | WON |
| Spencer Torkelson | 1+ Hits | 58.0% | 51.8% | +6.2pp | WON |