Astros.
The year-round intelligence desk for Houston.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
20
Executable
20
archive-backed
Resolved
20
Won
14
Lost
6
Win rate
70.0%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.2160Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=0—model—realised
- 20–30%n=0—model—realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=0—model—realised
- 60–70%n=2064.1%model70.0%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Altuve | 6 | 6 | 5 | 83% | 0.1855 |
| Jeremy Peña | 5 | 5 | 4 | 80% | 0.1878 |
| Yainer Diaz | 3 | 3 | 1 | 33% | 0.3059 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 3 | 3 | 2 | 67% | 0.2207 |
| Isaac Paredes | 2 | 2 | 1 | 50% | 0.2682 |
| Cam Smith | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1530 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yainer Diaz | 1+ Hits | 61.7% | 65.2% | -3.4pp | — |
| Jose Altuve | 1+ Hits | 63.1% | 65.6% | -2.4pp | — |
| Yainer Diaz | 1+ Hits | 63.7% | 65.6% | -2.0pp | — |
| Jeremy Peña | 1+ Hits | 67.8% | 66.0% | +1.9pp | WON |
| Isaac Paredes | 1+ Hits | 63.3% | 64.4% | -1.1pp | — |
| Yordan Alvarez | 1+ Hits | 68.9% | 68.1% | +0.8pp | WON |