Astros.
The year-round intelligence desk for Houston.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
34
Executable
34
archive-backed
Resolved
34
Won
24
Lost
10
Win rate
70.6%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.2191Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=0—model—realised
- 20–30%n=0—model—realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=147.2%model100.0%realised
- 50–60%n=159.8%model100.0%realised
- 60–70%n=3264.2%model68.8%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Peña | 11 | 11 | 7 | 64% | 0.2366 |
| Jose Altuve | 8 | 8 | 6 | 75% | 0.2048 |
| Isaac Paredes | 5 | 5 | 4 | 80% | 0.1931 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 4 | 4 | 3 | 75% | 0.1906 |
| Yainer Diaz | 3 | 3 | 1 | 33% | 0.3059 |
| Cam Smith | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1530 |
| Daulton Varsho | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1305 |
| Taylor Trammell | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.2792 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Peña | 1+ Hits | 63.0% | 67.3% | -4.4pp | — |
| Taylor Trammell | 1+ Hits | 47.2% | 43.1% | +4.1pp | WON |
| Yainer Diaz | 1+ Hits | 61.7% | 65.2% | -3.4pp | — |
| Jeremy Peña | 1+ Hits | 64.7% | 67.1% | -2.5pp | — |
| Jose Altuve | 1+ Hits | 63.1% | 65.6% | -2.4pp | — |
| Jeremy Peña | 1+ Hits | 66.8% | 68.8% | -2.1pp | — |
| Yainer Diaz | 1+ Hits | 63.7% | 65.6% | -2.0pp | — |
| Jeremy Peña | 1+ Hits | 67.8% | 66.0% | +1.9pp | WON |
| Isaac Paredes | 1+ Hits | 62.4% | 60.9% | +1.5pp | WON |
| Isaac Paredes | 1+ Hits | 64.5% | 63.1% | +1.4pp | WON |