Angels.
The year-round intelligence desk for Los Angeles.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
12
Executable
12
archive-backed
Resolved
12
Won
7
Lost
5
Win rate
58.3%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.2420Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=0—model—realised
- 20–30%n=0—model—realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=258.0%model50.0%realised
- 60–70%n=1063.2%model60.0%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Trout | 5 | 5 | 4 | 80% | 0.1934 |
| Zach Neto | 4 | 4 | 2 | 50% | 0.2664 |
| Denzer Guzman | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.3191 |
| Moisés Ballesteros | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1444 |
| Wade Meckler | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.4082 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Trout | 1+ Hits | 62.4% | 61.0% | +1.4pp | WON |
| Wade Meckler | 1+ Hits | 63.9% | 65.2% | -1.3pp | — |