Twins.
The year-round intelligence desk for Minnesota.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
20
Executable
20
archive-backed
Resolved
20
Won
17
Lost
3
Win rate
85.0%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.1766Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=0—model—realised
- 20–30%n=0—model—realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=257.9%model100.0%realised
- 60–70%n=1863.2%model83.3%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooks Lee | 5 | 5 | 5 | 100% | 0.1285 |
| Josh Bell | 5 | 5 | 5 | 100% | 0.1381 |
| Kody Clemens | 3 | 3 | 1 | 33% | 0.3047 |
| Luke Keaschall | 2 | 2 | 2 | 100% | 0.1263 |
| Alan Roden | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1772 |
| Royce Lewis | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1779 |
| Ryan Jeffers | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1509 |
| Victor Caratini | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.4009 |
| Walker Jenkins | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1254 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Bell | 1+ Hits | 66.2% | 62.5% | +3.7pp | WON |
| Kody Clemens | 1+ Hits | 62.1% | 65.3% | -3.2pp | — |
| Kody Clemens | 1+ Hits | 61.4% | 64.3% | -2.9pp | — |
| Josh Bell | 1+ Hits | 62.1% | 60.5% | +1.6pp | WON |
| Walker Jenkins | 1+ Hits | 64.6% | 63.3% | +1.2pp | WON |
| Brooks Lee | 1+ Hits | 66.4% | 66.3% | +0.1pp | WON |
| Brooks Lee | 1+ Hits | 63.6% | 63.6% | +0.0pp | WON |