Twins.
The year-round intelligence desk for Minnesota.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
43
Executable
43
archive-backed
Resolved
43
Won
34
Lost
9
Win rate
79.1%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.1935Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=0—model—realised
- 20–30%n=0—model—realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=358.4%model100.0%realised
- 60–70%n=4063.1%model77.5%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooks Lee | 13 | 13 | 10 | 77% | 0.1980 |
| Luke Keaschall | 9 | 9 | 8 | 89% | 0.1610 |
| Josh Bell | 8 | 8 | 8 | 100% | 0.1380 |
| Kody Clemens | 6 | 6 | 3 | 50% | 0.2697 |
| Ryan Jeffers | 2 | 2 | 2 | 100% | 0.1359 |
| Alan Roden | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1772 |
| Kaelen Culpepper | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.4213 |
| Royce Lewis | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1779 |
| Victor Caratini | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.4009 |
| Walker Jenkins | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1254 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooks Lee | 1+ Hits | 61.6% | 66.8% | -5.2pp | — |
| Luke Keaschall | 1+ Hits | 63.8% | 68.7% | -4.9pp | — |
| Brooks Lee | 1+ Hits | 61.3% | 65.8% | -4.4pp | — |
| Josh Bell | 1+ Hits | 66.2% | 62.5% | +3.7pp | WON |
| Kody Clemens | 1+ Hits | 62.1% | 65.3% | -3.2pp | — |
| Kody Clemens | 1+ Hits | 61.4% | 64.3% | -2.9pp | — |
| Brooks Lee | 1+ Hits | 63.4% | 60.6% | +2.9pp | WON |
| Ryan Jeffers | 1+ Hits | 65.2% | 62.4% | +2.8pp | WON |
| Brooks Lee | 1+ Hits | 66.4% | 68.8% | -2.4pp | — |
| Luke Keaschall | 1+ Hits | 68.0% | 65.9% | +2.1pp | WON |