Mets.
The year-round intelligence desk for New York.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
21
Executable
21
archive-backed
Resolved
21
Won
16
Lost
5
Win rate
76.2%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.2033Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=0—model—realised
- 20–30%n=0—model—realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=0—model—realised
- 60–70%n=2163.2%model76.2%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor | 7 | 7 | 4 | 57% | 0.2578 |
| Carson Benge | 5 | 5 | 5 | 100% | 0.1324 |
| Juan Soto | 5 | 5 | 4 | 80% | 0.2008 |
| Bo Bichette | 3 | 3 | 2 | 67% | 0.2231 |
| A.J. Ewing | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1296 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor | 1+ Hits | 62.7% | 65.1% | -2.4pp | — |
| Juan Soto | 1+ Hits | 64.9% | 66.5% | -1.5pp | — |
| Bo Bichette | 1+ Hits | 64.9% | 66.4% | -1.4pp | — |
| A.J. Ewing | 1+ Hits | 64.0% | 62.7% | +1.3pp | WON |
| Carson Benge | 1+ Hits | 63.6% | 62.5% | +1.1pp | WON |
| Francisco Lindor | 1+ Hits | 63.8% | 64.3% | -0.5pp | — |
| Carson Benge | 1+ Hits | 63.6% | 63.3% | +0.3pp | WON |
| Juan Soto | 1+ Hits | 63.7% | 63.4% | +0.3pp | WON |