Pirates.
The year-round intelligence desk for Pittsburgh.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
25
Executable
25
archive-backed
Resolved
25
Won
17
Lost
8
Win rate
68.0%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.2250Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=0—model—realised
- 20–30%n=0—model—realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=259.5%model100.0%realised
- 60–70%n=2362.9%model65.2%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds | 6 | 6 | 4 | 67% | 0.2260 |
| Nick Gonzales | 4 | 4 | 3 | 75% | 0.1988 |
| Konnor Griffin | 3 | 3 | 2 | 67% | 0.2437 |
| Oneil Cruz | 3 | 3 | 3 | 100% | 0.1462 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 3 | 3 | 2 | 67% | 0.2386 |
| Brandon Lowe | 2 | 2 | 2 | 100% | 0.1342 |
| Jake Mangum | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.3880 |
| Ronny Simon | 2 | 2 | 1 | 50% | 0.2726 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan O'Hearn | 1+ Hits | 62.9% | 66.6% | -3.6pp | — |
| Jake Mangum | 1+ Hits | 61.2% | 63.0% | -1.8pp | — |
| Nick Gonzales | 1+ Hits | 61.7% | 63.4% | -1.8pp | — |
| Bryan Reynolds | 1+ Hits | 63.6% | 65.3% | -1.8pp | — |
| Oneil Cruz | 1+ Hits | 61.2% | 60.4% | +0.8pp | WON |