Padres.
The year-round intelligence desk for San Diego.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
14
Executable
14
archive-backed
Resolved
14
Won
12
Lost
2
Win rate
85.7%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.1744Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=0—model—realised
- 20–30%n=0—model—realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=0—model—realised
- 60–70%n=1462.9%model85.7%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Merrill | 5 | 5 | 5 | 100% | 0.1410 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 3 | 3 | 3 | 100% | 0.1289 |
| Manny Machado | 3 | 3 | 3 | 100% | 0.1427 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1318 |
| Luis Campusano | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.3854 |
| Ty France | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.4042 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Campusano | 1+ Hits | 62.1% | 67.3% | -5.2pp | — |
| Manny Machado | 1+ Hits | 62.3% | 61.3% | +1.0pp | WON |
| Manny Machado | 1+ Hits | 61.8% | 61.0% | +0.8pp | WON |
| Ty France | 1+ Hits | 63.6% | 64.1% | -0.6pp | — |