Padres.
The year-round intelligence desk for San Diego.
01 / Record
The numbers, last window.
Official BETs
3
Executable
3
archive-backed
Resolved
3
Won
3
Lost
0
Win rate
100.0%
Brier (per-resolved): 0.1775Voided: 0
02 / Calibration
Model probability vs realised rate.
- 0–20%n=0—model—realised
- 20–30%n=0—model—realised
- 30–40%n=0—model—realised
- 40–50%n=0—model—realised
- 50–60%n=256.0%model100.0%realised
- 60–70%n=162.0%model100.0%realised
- 70–80%n=0—model—realised
- 80–90%n=0—model—realised
- 90–100%n=0—model—realised
When the model says X%, the event happened Y% of the time. Closer the two columns sit, the better calibrated the model is at that confidence band.
03 / Players
By sample size.
| Player | Official | Resolved | Won | Win rate | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Merrill | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1447 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1939 |
| Luis Campusano | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100% | 0.1940 |
04 / Mispriced
Largest edges that hit.
| Player | Market | Model | Sharp | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Campusano | 1+ Hits | 56.0% | 47.9% | +8.0pp | WON |
| Jackson Merrill | 1+ Hits | 62.0% | 57.3% | +4.7pp | WON |
| Jake Cronenworth | 1+ Hits | 56.0% | 51.4% | +4.5pp | WON |